Sensitivity of endemic behaviour of COVID-19 under a multi-dose vaccination regime, to various biological parameters and control variables
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Dagpunar, John1; Wu, Chenchen2 |
| 刊名 | ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2023-05-10 |
| 卷号 | 10期号:5页码:16 |
| 关键词 | COVID-19 vaccination model waning immunity endemic equilibrium SIR model control reproduction number |
| ISSN号 | 2054-5703 |
| DOI | 10.1098/rsos.221277 |
| 通讯作者 | Dagpunar, John(j.dagpunar@soton.ac.uk) |
| 英文摘要 | For an infectious disease such as COVID-19, we present a new four-stage vaccination model (unvaccinated, dose 1 + 2, booster, repeated boosters), which examines the impact of vaccination coverage, vaccination rate, generation interval, control reproduction number, vaccine efficacies and rates of waning immunity upon the dynamics of infection. We derive a single equation that allows computation of equilibrium prevalence and incidence of infection, given knowledge about these parameters and variable values. Based upon a 20-compartment model, we develop a numerical simulation of the associated differential equations. The model is not a forecasting or even predictive one, given the uncertainty about several biological parameter values. Rather, it is intended to aid a qualitative understanding of how equilibrium levels of infection may be impacted upon, by the parameters of the system. We examine one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis around a base case scenario. The key finding which should be of interest to policymakers is that while factors such as improved vaccine efficacy, increased vaccination rates, lower waning rates and more stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions might be thought to improve equilibrium levels of infection, this might only be done to good effect if vaccination coverage on a recurrent basis is sufficiently high. |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000984771200007 |
| 出版者 | ROYAL SOC |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/197300]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Dagpunar, John |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Southampton, Sch Math Sci, Southampton, England 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dagpunar, John,Wu, Chenchen. Sensitivity of endemic behaviour of COVID-19 under a multi-dose vaccination regime, to various biological parameters and control variables[J]. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE,2023,10(5):16. |
| APA | Dagpunar, John,&Wu, Chenchen.(2023).Sensitivity of endemic behaviour of COVID-19 under a multi-dose vaccination regime, to various biological parameters and control variables.ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE,10(5),16. |
| MLA | Dagpunar, John,et al."Sensitivity of endemic behaviour of COVID-19 under a multi-dose vaccination regime, to various biological parameters and control variables".ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 10.5(2023):16. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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