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Assessment and Simulation of Water Environment Carrying Capacity in a River Basin Using System Dynamics Model

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Wang, Yazhu1; Wang, Jurong1; Duan, Xuejun1; Wang, Lingqing2
刊名POLISH JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
出版日期2023
卷号32期号:3页码:2893-2907
关键词water environment carrying capacity system dynamics model Tongyang River Basin water environment conservation prediction and regulation model
ISSN号1230-1485
DOI10.15244/pjoes/161326
通讯作者Duan, Xuejun(xjduan@niglas.ac.cn)
英文摘要Due to intensive human activities, water environment systems in China have severely deteriorated, particularly in villages and towns. How agricultural and complex point sources contribute to this deterioration remains unknown. We developed a system dynamics prediction and regulation model to assess the water environment carrying capacity (WECC) of the Tongyang River Basin. Four development scenarios were proposed for the analyses: status quo, socioeconomic restrictions, sustainable use of water resources, and sustainable development of the water environment. In the status quo simulation, the overall water demand surpasses the capacity threshold after 2027, and the water resource deficit approaches 60 million m3 by 2035. Moreover, pollution parameters like chemical oxygen demand, ammonia nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total nitrogen (TN) show a significant rise after 2030. TN is the primary factor limiting water carrying capacity in the Tongyang River Basin. Under different scenarios, the concentrations of pollutants decrease, and then increase. Under comprehensive management, the WECC index values are predicted to be 31% lower in 2035 than those of 2020, indicating that there is room to improve the most crucial WECC index. Our findings can provide theoretical basis for rural development and water environment protection in Tongyang River Basin.
WOS关键词SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ; RESOURCES MANAGEMENT ; DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES ; CITY ; RESILIENCE ; IMPACTS ; CHINA ; AREA
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[42101318] ; National Key R&D Program of China[2018YFD1100101] ; Science and Technology Service Network Initiative of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[KFJ-STS-ZDTP-011]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000995718700037
出版者HARD
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key R&D Program of China ; Science and Technology Service Network Initiative of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/197420]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Duan, Xuejun
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Nanjing Inst Geog & Limnol, Key Lab Watershed Geog Sci, Nanjing 210008, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Wang, Yazhu,Wang, Jurong,Duan, Xuejun,et al. Assessment and Simulation of Water Environment Carrying Capacity in a River Basin Using System Dynamics Model[J]. POLISH JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES,2023,32(3):2893-2907.
APA Wang, Yazhu,Wang, Jurong,Duan, Xuejun,&Wang, Lingqing.(2023).Assessment and Simulation of Water Environment Carrying Capacity in a River Basin Using System Dynamics Model.POLISH JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES,32(3),2893-2907.
MLA Wang, Yazhu,et al."Assessment and Simulation of Water Environment Carrying Capacity in a River Basin Using System Dynamics Model".POLISH JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES 32.3(2023):2893-2907.

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来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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