中国科学院机构知识库网格
Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid
首页 机构 成果 学者
  
  1. CAS IR Grid
  2. 地理科学与资源研究所
  3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
  4. 自然地理与全球变化研究部
  5. 外文论文
Increased risk of flash droughts with raised concurrent hot and dry extremes under global warming

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zeng, Zhaoqi1,7,8; Wu, Wenxiang2; Penuelas, Josep1,8; Li, Yamei2; Jiao, Wenzhe3; Li, Zhaolei4,5; Ren, Xinshuai7; Wang, Ke7; Ge, Quansheng
刊名NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
出版日期2023-09-07
卷号6期号:1页码:134
ISSN号2397-3722
DOI10.1038/s41612-023-00468-2
产权排序1
文献子类Article
英文摘要Flash droughts pose large threats to crop yields and ecosystem services due to their sudden onset and rapid intensification, arousing wide public concern in a warming climate. Their long-term characteristics of change, underlying mechanisms, and especially potential impacts on agriculture, forests, and populations at a global scale, however, remain largely unknown. We used in situ observations, two observation-based global reanalysis data sets, and 22 Earth system models to determine that flash droughts are shifting toward more frequent, accelerated-onset, and longer duration. These changes increased the exposure of agricultural areas, forested areas, and populations to flash droughts by 20.3%, 17.1%, and 30.0%, respectively, during 2001-2020 compared to 1981-2000, with a disproportionate increase in integrated risks across the Amazon Basin and eastern and southern Asia. The increase in concurrent hot and dry climatic conditions driven by warming has been mostly responsible for enabling and intensifying flash droughts over large regions. State-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, however, failed to identify the acceleration of the onset time of flash droughts and widely underestimated the occurrence of flash droughts that are driven only by precipitation deficits or by heat waves, probably because they misrepresent the dependence between precipitation and temperature and underestimate the sensitivity of soil moisture to temperature and precipitation at short timescales (e.g., 5 days). These syntheses comprehensively advance our understanding of the characteristics and impacts of flash droughts but also highlight that the CMIP6 models need to be validated to represent the correct covariability between climatic variables at short timescales to provide more reliable projections of flash droughts.
学科主题Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS关键词PRECIPITATION DEFICIT ; PHENOLOGY ; ONSET ; CHALLENGE
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
出版者NATURE PORTFOLIO
WOS记录号WOS:001062554900001
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/197868]  
专题陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文
作者单位1.CREAF CSIC UAB, Global Ecol Unit, CSIC, Bellaterra 08193, Spain
2.CREAF, Cerdanyola Del Valles 08193, CA, Spain
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, State Key Lab Tibetan Plateau Earth Syst Environm, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
4.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Ecol & Conservat Biol, College Stn, TX USA
5.Southwest Univ, Coll Resources & Environm, Chongqing 400715, Peoples R China
6.Southwest Univ, Acad Agr Sci, Chongqing 400715, Peoples R China
7.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
8.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Dept Environm & Resources, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zeng, Zhaoqi,Wu, Wenxiang,Penuelas, Josep,et al. Increased risk of flash droughts with raised concurrent hot and dry extremes under global warming[J]. NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE,2023,6(1):134.
APA Zeng, Zhaoqi.,Wu, Wenxiang.,Penuelas, Josep.,Li, Yamei.,Jiao, Wenzhe.,...&Ge, Quansheng.(2023).Increased risk of flash droughts with raised concurrent hot and dry extremes under global warming.NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE,6(1),134.
MLA Zeng, Zhaoqi,et al."Increased risk of flash droughts with raised concurrent hot and dry extremes under global warming".NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE 6.1(2023):134.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本

除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。