Allocation of provincial carbon emission allowances under China's 2030 carbon peak target: A dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis method
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Cheng, Yonglong3; Gu, Baihe1; Tan, Xianchun3; Yan, Hongshuo3; Sheng, Yuhui3 |
| 刊名 | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022 |
| 卷号 | 837 |
| 关键词 | Carbon emission allowances (CEA) Dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis ZSG-DEA Entropy method Gini coef ficient |
| ISSN号 | 0048-9697 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155798 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | To balance China's socio-economic development and emission reduction goals, a fair and effective provincial carbon emission allowance (CEA) allocation is necessary. By considering the implied emissions of inter-provincial power transfer, this study designed a dynamic multi-criteria CEA allocation model based on four criteria-egalitarianism, historical responsibility, emission reduction capability, and emission efficiency-to calculate the provincial CEA year by year before 2030. The efficiency and fairness of the CEA scheme were evaluated through the Data envelopment analysis (DEA) model, the environmental Gini coefficient, and its grouped decomposition method. The national overall CEA, the results revealed, will peak during the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period. Specifically, the CEA for eastern and central China is expected to peak first during the 14th FYP period, while the northeast region's CEA remains stable and that of the western region continues to grow. Provinces with high carbon emissions, high carbon emission intensity and high per capita carbon emissions and provinces with particularly high carbon emissions will face great pressure regarding emission reduction, and their CEA peaks are expected to arrive before 2025 and 2030 respectively. The CEA of the less-developed provinces will have a surplus. In terms of time, the high-emission provinces face greater emission reduction pressure during the 15th FYP period than during the 14th FYP period. In terms of scheme evaluation, the scheme achieved a double improvement in fairness and efficiency compared with the current actual emissions of various provinces. Reducing the differences in per capita CEA between the different regions and provinces in the western and eastern regions will help improve the scheme's fairness. This study overcomes the existing researches' shortcomings on the large differences in the distribution of emission reduction pressures in key provinces and is more feasible in practice. |
| WOS关键词 | REGIONAL ALLOCATION ; INITIAL ALLOCATION ; QUOTA ALLOCATION ; CO2 EMISSIONS ; EFFICIENCY ; PERFORMANCE ; ABATEMENT ; EQUITY ; LEVEL |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000806053900011 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.casisd.cn/handle/190111/12014]  |
| 专题 | 可持续发展政策研究所 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Publ Policy & Management, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Sci & Dev, 15 ZhongGuanCun BeiYiTiao, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Sci & Dev, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cheng, Yonglong,Gu, Baihe,Tan, Xianchun,et al. Allocation of provincial carbon emission allowances under China's 2030 carbon peak target: A dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis method[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2022,837. |
| APA | Cheng, Yonglong,Gu, Baihe,Tan, Xianchun,Yan, Hongshuo,&Sheng, Yuhui.(2022).Allocation of provincial carbon emission allowances under China's 2030 carbon peak target: A dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis method.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,837. |
| MLA | Cheng, Yonglong,et al."Allocation of provincial carbon emission allowances under China's 2030 carbon peak target: A dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis method".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 837(2022). |
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来源：科技战略咨询研究院
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