The nested Wolter-I type focusing mirror is widely used in the field of X-ray astronomy. The thin-shell mirrors produced by the electroforming replication method will introduce various shape errors during the fabricating and assembling process. This study introduces a non-analytical 3D geometrical ray tracing algorithm capable of predicting optical performance for large mirror deformations. The algorithm's implementation involves error reconstruction, light source and ray simulation, and optical performance calculation. Experimental and simulation validation underscores the algorithm's precision and effectiveness. The results also indicate that edge deformation can seriously affect imaging contrast which is generally considered to be determined only by surface scattering. Applying the 3D ray tracing algorithm, a range of low-frequency fabrication and assembly errors are simulated, such as absolute radius, taper, roundness, edge effects, mirror posture, and hoisting deformation errors, and their effects on imaging quality are analyzed and discussed.(c) 2023 Optica Publishing Group under the terms of the Optica Open Access Publishing Agreement