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Modeling analysis of armed conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2019

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Xie, Xiaolan1,2; Jiang, Dong1,2,3; Hao, Mengmeng1,2; Ding, Fangyu1,2
刊名PLOS ONE
出版日期2023-10-02
卷号18期号:10页码:13
ISSN号1932-6203
DOI10.1371/journal.pone.0286404
通讯作者Hao, Mengmeng(haomm@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Ding, Fangyu(dingfy@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要Sub-Saharan Africa has suffered frequent outbreaks of armed conflict since the end of the Cold War. Although several efforts have been made to understand the underlying causes of armed conflict and establish an early warning mechanism, there is still a lack of a comprehensive assessment approach to model the incidence risk of armed conflict well. Based on a large database of armed conflict events and related spatial datasets covering the period 2000-2019, this study uses a boosted regression tree (BRT) approach to model the spatiotemporal distribution of armed conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. Evaluation of accuracy indicates that the simulated models obtain high performance with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) mean value of 0.937 and an area under the precision recall curves (PR-AUC) mean value of 0.891. The result of the relative contribution indicates that the background context factors (i.e., social welfare and the political system) are the main driving factors of armed conflict risk, with a mean relative contribution of 92.599%. By comparison, the climate change-related variables have relatively little effect on armed conflict risk, accounting for only 7.401% of the total. These results provide novel insight into modelling the incidence risk of armed conflict, which may help implement interventions to prevent and minimize the harm of armed conflict.
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CIVIL-WAR ; INEQUALITIES ; SENSITIVITY ; POPULATION ; VIOLENCE
资助项目We thank Yushu Qian for providing valuable suggestions.
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001079247400004
出版者PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
资助机构We thank Yushu Qian for providing valuable suggestions.
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/198641]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Hao, Mengmeng; Ding, Fangyu
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Minist Land & Resources, Key Lab Carrying Capac Assessment Resource & Envir, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Xie, Xiaolan,Jiang, Dong,Hao, Mengmeng,et al. Modeling analysis of armed conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2019[J]. PLOS ONE,2023,18(10):13.
APA Xie, Xiaolan,Jiang, Dong,Hao, Mengmeng,&Ding, Fangyu.(2023).Modeling analysis of armed conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2019.PLOS ONE,18(10),13.
MLA Xie, Xiaolan,et al."Modeling analysis of armed conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2019".PLOS ONE 18.10(2023):13.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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