Study of Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis in Songhua River Basin
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Yinan; Liu, Mingyang1; Xing, Zhenxiang1,2; Liu, Haoqi3; Song, Jian1; Hou, Quanying1; Xu, Yuan1 |
| 刊名 | WATER
 |
| 出版日期 | 2023-10-01 |
| 卷号 | 15期号:19页码:3443 |
| 关键词 | flood extremum sequence covariate NS-FFA Heilongjiang Province |
| DOI | 10.3390/w15193443 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | This study aimed to determine the influence of time and precipitation as covariates on the flood frequency distribution in the Songhua River tributaries under the nonstationarity assumption and to investigate the possibility of nonstationary models' application in river management scope demarcation work. Nonstationary flood frequency analysis (NS-FFA) was conducted in three typical basins of the Songhua River (in Northeastern China) based on the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS), and stationary flood frequency analysis was used as a comparison. Under the stationarity assumption, the Pearson type III (P-III) distribution is the main theoretical distribution for the flood extremum at hydrological stations, followed by a lognormal (LN) distribution. Under the nonstationarity assumption, when time is considered a covariate, the optimal theoretical distribution of the flood extremum is mainly LN (with 63.75%), followed by the Weibull distribution (with 18.75%). When precipitation is considered as a covariate, the optimal theoretical distribution of the flood extremum is mainly LN (with 57.5%). We attempted to apply several FFA methods to calculate the design frequency in this study, referring to the work requirements for river management scope demarcation in three typical basins, and came to the following conclusions. From the simulation results of the p = 10% flood at the export stations of typical basins, it can be seen that time-covariate NS-FFA obtained the best simulation results. Two cases of the simulation under the stationarity assumption are positive, which will lead to a high design scale. The time-covariate GAMLSS in NS-FFA has the advantages of higher calculation accuracy and simpler processes. To better balance construction costs and disaster protection requirements, NS-FFA can be used to determine the design scale of water conservation projects; additionally, it can be used to demarcate the scope of river management. The accuracy of GAMLSS for FFA is also influenced by the complexity of the terrain, with basins with relatively simple terrain having higher calculation accuracy. |
| WOS关键词 | STATIONARITY ; PLOT |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001083037400001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/198883]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Northeast Agr Univ, Sch Water Conservancy & Civil Engn, Harbin 150030, Peoples R China 3.Key Lab Water Resources & Hydraul Engn Cold Reg He, Harbin 150030, Peoples R China 4.Liaoning Water Conservancy & Hydropower Survey & D, Shenyang 110006, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Yinan,Liu, Mingyang,Xing, Zhenxiang,et al. Study of Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis in Songhua River Basin[J]. WATER,2023,15(19):3443. |
| APA | Wang, Yinan.,Liu, Mingyang.,Xing, Zhenxiang.,Liu, Haoqi.,Song, Jian.,...&Xu, Yuan.(2023).Study of Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis in Songhua River Basin.WATER,15(19),3443. |
| MLA | Wang, Yinan,et al."Study of Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis in Songhua River Basin".WATER 15.19(2023):3443. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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