Projecting spatiotemporal dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in the mainland of China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Ding, Fang-Yu; Ge, Hong-Han; Ma, Tian; Wang, Qian3,4; Hao, Meng-Meng; Li, Hao; Zhang, Xiao-Ai; Maude, Richard James3,4; Wang, Li-Ping; Jiang, Dong1,7 |
| 刊名 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2023-10-17 |
| 卷号 | N/A |
| 关键词 | climate change Haemaphysalis longicornis public health severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome spatiotemporal dynamic tick-borne disease |
| DOI | 10.1111/gcb.16969 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article ; Early Access |
| 英文摘要 | Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease with increasing incidence and geographic extent. The extent to which global climate change affects the incidence of SFTS disease remains obscure. We use an integrated multi-model, multi-scenario framework to assess the impact of global climate change on SFTS disease in China. The spatial distribution of habitat suitability for the tick Haemaphysalis longicornis was predicted by applying a boosted regression tree model under four alternative climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) for the periods 2030-2039, 2050-2059, and 2080-2089. We incorporate the SFTS cases in the mainland of China from 2010 to 2019 with environmental variables and the projected distribution of H. longicornis into a generalized additive model to explore the current and future spatiotemporal dynamics of SFTS. Our results demonstrate an expanded geographic distribution of H. longicornis toward Northern and Northwestern China, showing a more pronounced change under the RCP8.5 scenario. In contrast, the environmental suitability of H. longicornis is predicted to be reduced in Central and Eastern China. The SFTS incidence in three time periods (2030-2039, 2050-2059, and 2080-2089) is predicted to be increased as compared to the 2010s in the context of various RCPs. A heterogeneous trend across provinces, however, was observed, when an increased incidence in Liaoning and Shandong provinces, while decreased incidence in Henan province is predicted. Notably, we predict possible outbreaks in Xinjiang and Yunnan in the future, where only sporadic cases have been reported previously. These findings highlight the need for tick control and population awareness of SFTS in endemic regions, and enhanced monitoring in potential risk areas. |
| WOS关键词 | RHIPICEPHALUS-SANGUINEUS IXODIDAE ; HAEMAPHYSALIS-LONGICORNIS ; SYNDROME VIRUS ; HUMIDITY PREFERENCES ; IXODES-HOLOCYCLUS ; TICKS ; TEMPERATURE ; ECOLOGY |
| WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | WILEY |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001084957800001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/198861]  |
| 专题 | 资源利用与环境修复重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Beijing Inst Microbiol & Epidemiol, State Key Lab Pathogen & Biosecur, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Univ Oxford, Ctr Trop Med & Global Hlth, Nuffield Dept Med, Oxford, England 5.Mahidol Univ, Fac Trop Med, Mahidol Oxford Trop Med Res Unit, Bangkok, Thailand 6.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Div Infect Dis, Key Lab Surveillance & Early Warning Infect Dis, Beijing, Peoples R China 7.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, 155 Changbai Rd, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China 8.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 9.Beijing Inst Microbiol & Epidemiol, State Key Lab Pathogen & Biosecur, 20 Dong Da St, Beijing 100071, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ding, Fang-Yu,Ge, Hong-Han,Ma, Tian,et al. Projecting spatiotemporal dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in the mainland of China[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2023,N/A. |
| APA | Ding, Fang-Yu.,Ge, Hong-Han.,Ma, Tian.,Wang, Qian.,Hao, Meng-Meng.,...&Liu, Wei.(2023).Projecting spatiotemporal dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in the mainland of China.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,N/A. |
| MLA | Ding, Fang-Yu,et al."Projecting spatiotemporal dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in the mainland of China".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY N/A(2023). |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。