Uncertainty of temperature rise under nationally determined contributions and carbon neutral policies
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Chen, Jie-Wei4; Cui, Hui-Juan1,3,4; Chen, Nan2; Qian, Guo-Qiang2 |
| 刊名 | ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2023-08-01 |
| 卷号 | 14期号:4页码:580-586 |
| 关键词 | Uncertainty Temperature rise Nationally determined contribution Carbon neutrality Carbon emission intensity |
| ISSN号 | 1674-9278 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.accre.2023.07.006 |
| 通讯作者 | Cui, Hui-Juan(cuihj@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Nationally determined contributions raised by Paris Agreement aim to control the temperature rise below 2 degrees C or even 1.5 degrees C at the end of the 21st century, compared to pre-industrial levels. However, the climate response of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) remains uncertain due to unstable policies and their credibility. In this study, we calculated the uncertainty of global temperature rise caused by uncertain NDCs and carbon-neutral policies and discussed the difficulty of policy implementation. The results show that there will be 8 GtC uncertainty in emission at the end of the 21st century, responsible for the temperature rise of 0.37 degrees C (1.73-2.10 degrees C). A delayed policy in emission reduction by major emitters would result in a temperature rise of over 2 degrees C, while under non-delay policy, the 2 degrees C target will be possibly achieved. Besides, low-emission countries would introduce a 30 GtC cumulative emission uncertainty at the end of the 21st century if there are no restrictions, leading to a 0.3 degrees C global warming uncertainty. Developed countries need more substantial reductions in carbon intensity to achieve their climate policies while developing countries are under less pressure. The reduction of carbon intensity requires the strengthening of technical and economic methods. This study provides a reference for the realization of emission policies and temperature rise targets. |
| WOS关键词 | PARIS AGREEMENT ; CLIMATE ; EMISSIONS ; NEED |
| 资助项目 | Development Program of China[2017YFA0605303] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS[2019053] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001090178200001 |
| 出版者 | KEAI PUBLISHING LTD |
| 资助机构 | Development Program of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/199164]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Cui, Hui-Juan |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Sino Carbon Innovat & Investment Co Ltd, Beijing 100007, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chen, Jie-Wei,Cui, Hui-Juan,Chen, Nan,et al. Uncertainty of temperature rise under nationally determined contributions and carbon neutral policies[J]. ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,2023,14(4):580-586. |
| APA | Chen, Jie-Wei,Cui, Hui-Juan,Chen, Nan,&Qian, Guo-Qiang.(2023).Uncertainty of temperature rise under nationally determined contributions and carbon neutral policies.ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,14(4),580-586. |
| MLA | Chen, Jie-Wei,et al."Uncertainty of temperature rise under nationally determined contributions and carbon neutral policies".ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH 14.4(2023):580-586. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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