Nexus of climate change, farmland abandonment and farmers' livelihood in Koshi River Basin, Central Himalava
文献类型：学位论文
| 作者 | Basanta PAUDEL |
| 答辩日期 | 2023-02 |
| 文献子类 | 博士后出站报告 |
| 授予单位 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 授予地点 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 导师 | LI Shenggong ; ZHANG Yili |
| 关键词 | Climate change impact farmland abandonment livelihood UAV Koshi River Basin |
| 学位名称 | 博士后 |
| 学位专业 | ecology |
| 英文摘要 | The impact of climate change notice in various form in farmers’ livelihood in global, regional, and small scale. The Himalayas region well known as highly affected by this issue, and screen it by farmers’ indigenous knowledge is appropriate way. A total of 747 semi-structured households questionnaire survey were carried out to gather information about climate change and its impact covering four physiographic regions of trans-boundary Koshi River Basin (KRB). The observed climatic data were used to calculate climatic trend between 1980 and 2018. The binary logistic regression was applied for statistical analysis. The surveyed farmers’ of the basin noted that an increase in temperature, climate-induced crops diseases and pests, drought and flood frequency, and decrease in rainfall were the strong indicators of climate change, and they perceived, the climate change adversely impacted on staple crops (89.4%), human health (82.5%), livestock (68.7%), vegetation (52.1%), and adverse impact from disasters (80.6%). The observed climatic trend of all the physiographic regions found in increasing trend of temperature and decreasing trend of rainfall. The changing rate was vary by each regions, hence it strongly supported the farmers’ perception of climate change. The rate of change varied according to each region, hence strongly supporting the farmers’ local knowledge of climate change. The highest increasing trend of temperature noted in the hill region at 0.0975 °C/a (p = 0.0002) and sharpest decreasing trend of rainfall in the mountain region by −0.424 mm/a (p = 0.016) between 1980 and 2018. The regression model results shows the majority of the agricultural and biophysical variables influence of farmers’ perception of climate change and its impact, with a coefficient of determination of 87%. Formulation of the suitable adaptation strategies by physiographic regions can be minimize climate change impact. The new adaptation strategies can include introducing infrastructure for irrigation system, developing crops seeds of drought-pest and disease tolerant, and build hospital at local scale in the favor of farmers. Further, globally, there is a noticeable increasing trend in farmland abandonment, which directly affects farmers’ livelihood and food security. The abandonment status, its determinants and impact vary by spatial and socioeconomic context. In order to study this important issue, we selected three different villages representing three ecological regions (Mountain, Hill, and Tarai) in the Koshi River Basin (KRB), and applied two methods: the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and a social survey. The UAV captured 3,711 images and we carried out 162 households’ survey with structured questionnaires. Pix4Dmapper and ArcGIS tools were used for combining and processing the images. On-screen digitalization and binary logistic regression (BLR) were applied to examine the status and determinants of farmland abandonment. The results show a higher proportion of farmland abandonment in the villages located in the Hill and Mountain regions compared to those in the Tarai region. Almost 10.3% area of total land and 22.3% area of total farmland was abandoned in the Hill village. The Tarai village had the least farm abandonment (3.7%). Farmers perceived that climate change (less precipitation, increasing temperatures, and drought), shifting occupations, crops damaged by wildlife, migration, lack of irrigation, and a labor shortage are the leading determinants of farmland abandonment. These factors varied slightly across the different ecological regions. The BLR model was a good fit with Nagelkerke’s R2=0.776, with a correct model prediction (87.7%) and p=0.032. The results from the regression model suggest that an increase in temperature (p=0.000), decrease in rainfall (p=0.001), lack of machinery used for farm-work (p=0.000), lack of irrigation (p=0.000), and reduction of labor-force (p=0.000) are the main contributing determinants of farmland abandonment. This synergy of high-resolution remote sensing and farmers’ perception-based findings facilitates the improvement of land-use governmental policies to improve farmers’ quality of life and build sustainable farmland management. In addition, the climate change issue impacted by overall farmers’ livelihood in negative way and increasing trend of temperature and drought frequency, as well as decreasing trend of precipitation play the main role for farmland abandonment, and created the more difficulties on farmers’ livelihood and food security. Thus, the climate change, farmland abandonment and farmers’ livelihood nexus shows, the overall negative impact occurred in farmers’ livelihood due to climate change in KRB, Central Himalaya. |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 页码 | 84 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/199898]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_研究生部 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Basanta PAUDEL. Nexus of climate change, farmland abandonment and farmers' livelihood in Koshi River Basin, Central Himalava[D]. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所. 2023. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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