A Transformer-Based Deep Learning Model for Successful Predictions of the 2021 Second-Year La Nina Condition
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Gao, Chuan1,2 ; Zhou, Lu1,3; Zhang, Rong-Hua2,3,4
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| 刊名 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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| 出版日期 | 2023-06-28 |
| 卷号 | 50期号:12页码:10 |
| 关键词 | the 2021 second-year cooling condition a transformer-based deep learning model 3D multivariate prediction subsurface thermal effect comparison with dynamical models |
| ISSN号 | 0094-8276 |
| DOI | 10.1029/2023GL104034 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Rong-Hua(rzhang@nuist.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | A purely data-driven and transformer-based model with a novel self-attention mechanism (3D-Geoformer) is used to make predictions by adopting a rolling predictive manner similar to that in dynamical coupled models. The 3D-Geoformer yields a successful prediction of the 2021 second-year cooling conditions that followed the 2020 La Nina event, including covarying anomalies of surface wind stress and three-dimensional (3D) upper-ocean temperature, the reoccurrence of negative subsurface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific and a corresponding turning point of sea surface temperature (SST) evolution in mid-2021. The reasons for the successful prediction with interpretability are explored comprehensively by performing sensitivity experiments with modulating effects on SST due to wind and subsurface thermal forcings being separately considered in the input predictors for prediction. A comparison is also conducted with physics-based modeling, illustrating the suitability and effectiveness of 3D-Geoformer as a new platform for El Nino and Southern Oscillation studies. Plain Language Summary The tropical Pacific experienced the prolonged cooling conditions during 2020-2022 (often called a triple La Nina), which exerted great impacts on the weather and climate globally. However, physics-derived coupled models still have difficulty in accurately making long-lead real-time predictions for sea surface temperature (SST) evolution in the tropical Pacific. With the rapid development of deep learning-based modeling, purely data-driven models provide an innovative way for SST predictions. Here, a transformer-based deep learning model is used to evaluate its performance in predicting the evolution of SST in the tropical Pacific during 2020-2022 and explore process representations that are important for SST evolution during 2021, including subsurface thermal effect and surface wind forcing on SST, the crucial factors determining the second-year prolonged La Nina conditions and turning point of SST evolution. A comparison is made between the completely differently constructed physics-derived dynamical coupled model and the pure-data driven deep learning model, showing they both can be used for predictions of SST evolution in the 2021 second-year cooling conditions. This indicates that it is necessary to adequately represent the thermocline feedback in predictive models, either in dynamical coupled models or purely data-driven models, so that El Nino and Southern Oscillation predictions can be improved. |
| WOS关键词 | EL-NINO ; OSCILLATOR MODEL ; ENSO ; PACIFIC ; DISPLACEMENTS ; FORECASTS ; PROGRESS |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[42176032] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)[XDB42000000] ; NSFC[42030410] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of CAS[XDB40000000] ; Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST ; Laoshan Laboratory[LSKJ202202402] |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001058648500004 |
| 出版者 | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/181697]  |
| 专题 | 海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Rong-Hua |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Ctr Ocean Mega Sci, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China 2.Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Marine Sci, Nanjing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gao, Chuan,Zhou, Lu,Zhang, Rong-Hua. A Transformer-Based Deep Learning Model for Successful Predictions of the 2021 Second-Year La Nina Condition[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2023,50(12):10. |
| APA | Gao, Chuan,Zhou, Lu,&Zhang, Rong-Hua.(2023).A Transformer-Based Deep Learning Model for Successful Predictions of the 2021 Second-Year La Nina Condition.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,50(12),10. |
| MLA | Gao, Chuan,et al."A Transformer-Based Deep Learning Model for Successful Predictions of the 2021 Second-Year La Nina Condition".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 50.12(2023):10. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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