Increased Summer European Heatwaves in Recent Decades: Contributions From Greenhouse Gases-Induced Warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation-Like Variations
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Luo, Binhe1; Luo, Dehai7,8; Zhuo, Wenqing6; Xiao, Cunde1; Dai, Aiguo4; Simmonds, Ian5; Yao, Yao8; Diao, Yina6; Gong, Tingting2,3 |
| 刊名 | EARTHS FUTURE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2023-08-01 |
| 卷号 | 11期号:8页码:20 |
| 关键词 | Summer heatwaves greenhouse gases warming Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation European blocking and Ural blocking North Atlantic Oscillation North Atlantic jet |
| DOI | 10.1029/2023EF003701 |
| 通讯作者 | Luo, Dehai(ldh@mail.iap.ac.cn) ; Xiao, Cunde(cdxiao@bnu.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Summer heatwaves over Europe, which can cause many deaths and severe damage, have become increasingly frequent over central and eastern Europe and western Russia in recent decades. In this paper, we estimate the contributions of the warming due to increased greenhouse gases (GHG) and nonlinear variations correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to the observed heatwave trend over Europe during 1980-2021, when the GHG-induced warming over Europe exhibits a linear trend. It is found that GHG-induced warming contributes to similar to 57% of the European heatwave trend over 1980-2021, while the cold-to-warm phase shift of the AMO-like variations accounts for similar to 43% of the trend via the intensification of midlatitude North Atlantic jet. The recent trend of heatwaves over western and northern Europe is mainly due to GHG-induced warming, while that over central and eastern Europe and western Russia is primarily related to the combined effect of the AMO-like variations and GHG-induced warming. To some extent, GHG-induced warming is an amplifier of the increasing trend of recent AMO-related European heatwaves. Moreover, European blocking (Ural blocking, UB) is shown to contribute to 55% (42%) of the AMO-related heatwave trend via the influence of midlatitude North Atlantic jet. In the presence of a strong North Atlantic jet during the recent warm AMO phase, UB events concurrent with positive-phase North Atlantic Oscillation can cause intense, persistent and widespread heatwaves over Europe such as that observed in the summer of 2022. Plain Language Summary In recent decades, severe summer heatwaves frequently occurred in Eurasia and North America. However, what leads to the increased European heatwaves in recent decades is still debated. In this paper, we quantify the contributions of greenhouse gases (GHG)-induced warming and the multidecadal variations correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to increased European heatwaves in recent decades by assuming that GHG-induced warming shows a linear upward trend. It is revealed that GHG-induced warming contributes to similar to 57% of the recent European heatwave trend during 1980-2021, whereas the cold-to-warm transition of the AMO-like variations contributes to similar to 43% of the trend via strengthening the midlatitude North Atlantic jet. In particular, European blocking (EB) (Ural blocking, UB) accounts for similar to 55% (42%) of the AMO-related heatwave trend, even though the area extent and intensity of European heat waves depend strongly on whether the EB or UB is concurrent with the positive phase of NAO and whether the midlatitude North Atlantic jet is strong. |
| WOS关键词 | HEAT WAVES ; TEMPERATURE ; BLOCKING ; VARIABILITY ; CIRCULATION |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[42150204] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42288101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41975068] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42075025] ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[2023M730279] ; Beijing Normal University Talent Introduction Project of China[12807-312232101] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001040710800001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/182692]  |
| 专题 | 海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Luo, Dehai; Xiao, Cunde |
| 作者单位 | 1.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Pilot Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol Qingdao, Qingdao, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China 4.SUNY Albany, Dept Atmospher & Environm Sci, Albany, NY USA 5.Univ Melbourne, Sch Geog Earth & Atmospher Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia 6.Ocean Univ China, Coll Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Qingdao, Peoples R China 7.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 8.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Temperate East Asia, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Luo, Binhe,Luo, Dehai,Zhuo, Wenqing,et al. Increased Summer European Heatwaves in Recent Decades: Contributions From Greenhouse Gases-Induced Warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation-Like Variations[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2023,11(8):20. |
| APA | Luo, Binhe.,Luo, Dehai.,Zhuo, Wenqing.,Xiao, Cunde.,Dai, Aiguo.,...&Gong, Tingting.(2023).Increased Summer European Heatwaves in Recent Decades: Contributions From Greenhouse Gases-Induced Warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation-Like Variations.EARTHS FUTURE,11(8),20. |
| MLA | Luo, Binhe,et al."Increased Summer European Heatwaves in Recent Decades: Contributions From Greenhouse Gases-Induced Warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation-Like Variations".EARTHS FUTURE 11.8(2023):20. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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