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Increased occurrences of consecutive La Nina events under global warming

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Geng, Tao1,2,7; Jia, Fan3,7; Cai, Wenju1,2,4,5; Wu, Lixin1,2,7; Gan, Bolan1,2; Jing, Zhao1,2,7; Li, Shujun1,2; McPhaden, Michael J.6
刊名NATURE
出版日期2023-07-27
卷号619期号:7971页码:774-+
ISSN号0028-0836
DOI10.1038/s41586-023-06236-9
通讯作者Jia, Fan(jiafan@qdio.ac.cn) ; Cai, Wenju(wenju.cai@csiro.au)
英文摘要Most El Nino events occur sporadically and peak in a single winter(1-3), whereas La Nina tends to develop after an El Nino and last for two years or longer(4-7). Relative to single-year La Nina, consecutive La Nina features meridionally broader easterly winds and hence a slower heat recharge of the equatorial Pacific(6,7), enabling the cold anomalies to persist, exerting prolonged impacts on global climate, ecosystems and agriculture(8-13). Future changes to multi-year-long La Nina events remain unknown. Here, using climate models under future greenhouse-gas forcings(14), we find an increased frequency of consecutive La Nina ranging from 19 +/- 11% in a low-emission scenario to 33 +/- 13% in a high-emission scenario, supported by an inter-model consensus stronger in higher-emission scenarios. Under greenhouse warming, a mean-state warming maximum in the subtropical northeastern Pacific enhances the regional thermodynamic response to perturbations, generating anomalous easterlies that are further northward than in the twentieth century in response to El Nino warm anomalies. The sensitivity of the northward-broadened anomaly pattern is further increased by a warming maximum in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The slower heat recharge associated with the northward-broadened easterly anomalies facilitates the cold anomalies of the first-year La Nina to persist into a second-year La Nina. Thus, climate extremes as seen during historical consecutive La Nina episodes probably occur more frequently in the twenty-first century.
WOS关键词SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; EL-NINO ; SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ; ENSO ; PACIFIC ; VARIABILITY ; MODEL ; AMPLITUDE ; DURATION ; IMPACT
资助项目Science and Technology Innovation Project of Laoshan Laboratory[LSKJ202203300] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB 40030000] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[42206209] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[42276006] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[2021205] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[LSKJ202202602] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[5457] ; China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents[BX20220279] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2020YFA0608801] ; NSFC[LSKJ202202402] ; NSFC[42276016] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciences[42276016] ; Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)[92058203] ; [41876008] ; [42006173]
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001038658500019
出版者NATURE PORTFOLIO
源URL[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/182696]  
专题海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者Jia, Fan; Cai, Wenju
作者单位1.Ocean Univ China, Phys Oceanog Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China
2.Ocean Univ China, Frontier Sci Ctr Deep Ocean Multispheres & Earth S, Qingdao, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China
4.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Ctr Southern Hemisphere Oceans Res CSHOR, Hobart, Tas, Australia
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, State Key Lab Loess & Quaternary Geol, Xian, Peoples R China
6.NOAA, Pacific Marine Environm Lab, Seattle, WA USA
7.Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Geng, Tao,Jia, Fan,Cai, Wenju,et al. Increased occurrences of consecutive La Nina events under global warming[J]. NATURE,2023,619(7971):774-+.
APA Geng, Tao.,Jia, Fan.,Cai, Wenju.,Wu, Lixin.,Gan, Bolan.,...&McPhaden, Michael J..(2023).Increased occurrences of consecutive La Nina events under global warming.NATURE,619(7971),774-+.
MLA Geng, Tao,et al."Increased occurrences of consecutive La Nina events under global warming".NATURE 619.7971(2023):774-+.

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来源：海洋研究所

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