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Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Cai, Wenju2,9,12; Ng, Benjamin12; Geng, Tao2,8,9; Jia, Fan5; Wu, Lixin2,8,9; Wang, Guojian2,9,12; Liu, Yu11; Gan, Bolan2,8,9; Yang, Kai10; Santoso, Agus1,12
刊名NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
出版日期2023-05-18
页码12
DOI10.1038/s43017-023-00427-8
通讯作者Cai, Wenju(Wenju.cai@csiro.au) ; Wu, Lixin(Lxwu@ouc.edu.cn)
英文摘要El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) variability increased after 1960, influenced by more frequent strong El Nino and La Nina events. Whether such changes are linked to anthropogenic warming, however, is largely unknown. In this Perspective, we consider anthropogenic impacts on ENSO variability in several commonly used modelling designs, which collectively suggest a greenhouse warming-related effect on post-1960 ENSO SST variability. Specifically, a comparison of simulated ENSO SST variability between 1901-1960 and 1961-2020 indicates that more than three quarters of climate models produce an amplitude increase in post-1960 ENSO SST variability, translating into more frequent strong El Nino and La Nina events. Multiple large ensemble experiments further confirm that the simulated post-1960 ENSO amplitude increase (approximately 10%) is not solely due to internal variability. Moreover, multicentury-long simulations under a constant pre-industrial CO2 level suggest that the observed post-1960 ENSO variability is high, sitting in the highest 2.5 and 10 percentiles for eastern Pacific and central Pacific ENSO, respectively. Improvement in model ENSO physics, identification of consistent future and historical change in additional ENSO characteristics and single-forcing large-ensemble experiments are further needed to ascertain climate change impacts on the ENSO. Although model projections indicate increased El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the future, contemporary impacts of anthropogenic forcing on ENSO variability have been difficult to ascertain. This Perspective discusses these contemporary effects, outlining that an increase in post-1960 ENSO variability is likely related to greenhouse gas forcing.
WOS关键词NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ; PACIFIC EL-NINO ; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; INTERMODEL UNCERTAINTY ; AMPLITUDE CHANGE ; EASTERN-PACIFIC ; MEAN-STATE ; FREQUENCY ; EVENTS ; OCEAN
资助项目Science and Technology Innovation Project of Laoshan Laboratory[LSKJ202203300] ; Strategic Priority Research Programme of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB 40030000] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) project[42206209] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) project[42276006] ; China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents[BX20220279] ; NSFC[41490643] ; NSFC[41490640] ; NSFC[U1606402] ; NSFC[41521091] ; CSIRO ; Australian Government's National Environmental Science Program (NESP) ; UK Natural Environment Research Council[NE/S004645/1] ; US Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison[4957]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000990445800001
出版者SPRINGERNATURE
源URL[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/182996]  
专题海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者Cai, Wenju; Wu, Lixin
作者单位1.Univ New South Wales, Australian Res Council ARC Ctr Excellence Climate, Sydney, NSW, Australia
2.Ocean Univ China, Key Lab Phys Oceanog, Qingdao, Peoples R China
3.NOAA Pacific Marine Environm Lab, Seattle, WA USA
4.Univ Exeter, Dept Math & Stat, Exeter, England
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China
6.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Atmospher Sci, SOEST, Honolulu, HI USA
7.Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
8.Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China
9.Ocean Univ China, Frontier Sci Ctr Deep Ocean Multispheres & Earth S, Qingdao, Peoples R China
10.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geoph, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Cai, Wenju,Ng, Benjamin,Geng, Tao,et al. Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes[J]. NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT,2023:12.
APA Cai, Wenju.,Ng, Benjamin.,Geng, Tao.,Jia, Fan.,Wu, Lixin.,...&McPhaden, Michael J..(2023).Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes.NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT,12.
MLA Cai, Wenju,et al."Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes".NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT (2023):12.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：海洋研究所

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