Can direct CMIP6 model simulations reproduce mean annual historical streamflow change?
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Huang, Qi1,2; Zhang, Yongqiang2; Wei, Haoshan1,2 |
| 刊名 | CATENA
 |
| 出版日期 | 2024-02-01 |
| 卷号 | 235页码:9 |
| ISSN号 | 0341-8162 |
| 关键词 | Streamflow Mean annual streamflow change CMIP6 Error attribution |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.catena.2023.107650 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Yongqiang(zhangyq@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Direct streamflow outputs from CMIP6 models are important for studying future water supply under climate change. However, the hydrological community generally ignores such data as its ability to predict streamflow change is largely unquantified and presumably considered biased. Here, we examined the ability of the 15 CMIP6 models to directly reproduce the observed mean annual streamflow change (Delta Q) between 1999-2014 and 1982-1998 for 115 large basins across the globe. The Delta Q and error of Delta Q in CMIP6 models (Delta Q_error) were then attributed to nine independent climate and vegetation variables using a stepwise regression model. Compared to the observations, almost all of the CMIP6 models overestimate Delta Q. In variable attribution, the observed Delta Q in the 115 basins can be well attributed (R2 = 0.59) to changes in precipitation (66 %), temperature (15 %), and leaf area index (-18 %). However, these variables could not explain Delta Q obtained from CMIP6 models (R2 = 0.13). In error attribution, errors in precipitation change contributes the most (69 +/- 12 %) to Delta Q_error in CMIP6 models, followed by location-related variables, changes in vegetation-related variables, and changes in temperature-related variables. Although the current performance of CMIP6 model outputs varies in simulating observed streamflow change, they may become more reliable with improved model structures for better representations of climate and land surface processes. |
| WOS关键词 | EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FLOOD RISK ; RUNOFF PROJECTIONS ; IMPACTS ; TRENDS ; FUTURE ; PRECIPITATION ; STATE ; CYCLE |
| 资助项目 | National Key R & D Program of China[2022YFC3002804] ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research[2019QZKK020807] ; CAS-CSIRO drought collaboration project, Research Fund for International Young Scientists[42150410388] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42250410330] |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Agriculture ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001109056200001 |
| 资助机构 | National Key R & D Program of China ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research ; CAS-CSIRO drought collaboration project, Research Fund for International Young Scientists ; National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/200473]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Yongqiang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huang, Qi,Zhang, Yongqiang,Wei, Haoshan. Can direct CMIP6 model simulations reproduce mean annual historical streamflow change?[J]. CATENA,2024,235:9. |
| APA | Huang, Qi,Zhang, Yongqiang,&Wei, Haoshan.(2024).Can direct CMIP6 model simulations reproduce mean annual historical streamflow change?.CATENA,235,9. |
| MLA | Huang, Qi,et al."Can direct CMIP6 model simulations reproduce mean annual historical streamflow change?".CATENA 235(2024):9. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。