Spatiotemporal Changes and the Prediction of Drought Characteristics in a Major Grain-Producing Area of China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Guo, Linghui2; Luo, Yuanyuan2; Li, Yao2; Wang, Tianping3; Gao, Jiangbo1,4; Zhang, Hebing2; Zou, Youfeng2; Wu, Shaohong4 |
| 刊名 | SUSTAINABILITY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2023-11-01 |
| 卷号 | 15期号:22页码:19 |
| 关键词 | cropland exposure drought event characteristics drought prediction Henan Province |
| DOI | 10.3390/su152215737 |
| 通讯作者 | Gao, Jiangbo(gaojiangbo@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Understanding variations in drought characteristics is of great importance for water resource planning and agriculture risk management. Despite increasing interest in exploring spatiotemporal drought patterns, long-term drought event characteristics and their future changes are unclear in major grain-producing areas in China. In this study, we applied Run theory, Sen's slope, the modified Mann-Kendall method, wavelet analysis, and three machine learning models to systematically examine drought variation patterns, their future trends, and agricultural exposure in Henan Province, China, from 1961 to 2019. The results indicated that the SPEI-12 showed a significant increase at a rate of 0.0017/month during 1961-1999, but this has gradually changed to a drying trend since the 21st century. Drought event characteristics shifted markedly during these two periods, with drought duration and severity gradually shifting from east to west. The BO-LSTM model performed better than the LSTM and BP models, indicating that the drought frequency, higher drought duration, and drought peak would greatly increase 1.28-3.40-fold and cropland exposure is predicted to increase 1.61-fold in the near future compared to the first two decades of the 21st century. This finding not only helps developing meteorological drought predicting models, but also provides the scientific groundwork for drought disaster prevention and mitigation in Henan Province. |
| WOS关键词 | STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION ; MAINLAND CHINA ; PATTERNS ; EVOLUTION ; MODEL |
| 资助项目 | Qinghai Kunlun High-end Talents Project, National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001113984800001 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 资助机构 | Qinghai Kunlun High-end Talents Project, National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/200551]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Gao, Jiangbo |
| 作者单位 | 1.Qinghai Normal Univ, Acad Plateau Sci & Sustainabil, Xining 810008, Peoples R China 2.Henan Polytech Univ, Sch Surveying & Land Informat Engn, Jiaozuo 454000, Peoples R China 3.Nat Reserve & Wildlife Conservat Ctr, Jiaozuo 454000, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Guo, Linghui,Luo, Yuanyuan,Li, Yao,et al. Spatiotemporal Changes and the Prediction of Drought Characteristics in a Major Grain-Producing Area of China[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2023,15(22):19. |
| APA | Guo, Linghui.,Luo, Yuanyuan.,Li, Yao.,Wang, Tianping.,Gao, Jiangbo.,...&Wu, Shaohong.(2023).Spatiotemporal Changes and the Prediction of Drought Characteristics in a Major Grain-Producing Area of China.SUSTAINABILITY,15(22),19. |
| MLA | Guo, Linghui,et al."Spatiotemporal Changes and the Prediction of Drought Characteristics in a Major Grain-Producing Area of China".SUSTAINABILITY 15.22(2023):19. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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