Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework forassessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors onflood evacuation processes
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Du, Erhu; Wu, Feng2; Jiang, Hao4; Guo, Naliang2; Tian, Yong4; Zheng, Chunmiao1,4 |
| 刊名 | HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
 |
| 出版日期 | 2023-04-17 |
| 卷号 | 27期号:7页码:1607-1626 |
| DOI | 10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | In many flood-prone areas, it is essential for emergency responders to use advanced computer models to assess flood risk and develop informed flood evacuation plans. However, previous studies have had a limited understanding of how evacuation performance is affected by the arrangement of evacuation shelters (with respect to their number and geographical distribution) and human behaviors (with respect to the heterogeneity of household evacuation preparation times and route-searching strategies). In this study, we develop an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework that couples (1) a hydrodynamic model for flood simulation, (2) an agent-based model for evacuation management policies and human behaviors, and (3) a transportation model for simulating household evacuation processes in a road network. We apply the model to the Xiong'an New Area and examine household evacuation outcomes for various shelter location plans and human behavior scenarios. The results show that household evacuation processes are significantly affected by the number and geographical distribution of evacuation shelters. Surprisingly, we find that establishing more shelters may not improve evacuation results if the shelters are not strategically located. We also find that low heterogeneity in evacuation preparation times can result in heavy traffic congestion and long evacuation clearance times. If each household selects their own shortest route without considering the effects of other evacuees' route choices, traffic congestion will likely occur, thereby reducing system-level evacuation performance. These results demonstrate the unique functionality of our model with respect to supporting flood risk assessment and advancing our understanding of how multiple management and behavioral factors jointly affect evacuation performance. |
| WOS关键词 | FLOOD-RISK ; DECISION-MAKING ; LAND-USE ; TRANSPORTATION ; PARADOX ; UNCERTAINTY ; RESILIENCE ; SIMULATION ; INUNDATION ; ADAPTATION |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Water Resources |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000973553900001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/200836]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, State Environm Protect Key Lab Integrated Surface, Shenzhen, Peoples R China 2.Hohai Univ, Yangtze Inst Conservat & Dev, Nanjing, Peoples R China 3.EIT Inst Adv Study, Ningbo, Zhejiang, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Du, Erhu,Wu, Feng,Jiang, Hao,et al. Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework forassessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors onflood evacuation processes[J]. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,2023,27(7):1607-1626. |
| APA | Du, Erhu,Wu, Feng,Jiang, Hao,Guo, Naliang,Tian, Yong,&Zheng, Chunmiao.(2023).Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework forassessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors onflood evacuation processes.HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,27(7),1607-1626. |
| MLA | Du, Erhu,et al."Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework forassessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors onflood evacuation processes".HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 27.7(2023):1607-1626. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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