Driving role of climatic and socioenvironmental factors on human brucellosis in China: machine-learning-based predictive analyses
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Chen, Hui; Lin, Meng-Xuan; Wang, Li-Ping; Huang, Yin-Xiang; Feng, Yao1; Fang, Li-Qun; Wang, Lei3; Song, Hong-Bin; Wang, Li-Gui |
| 刊名 | INFECTIOUS DISEASES OF POVERTY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2023-04-12 |
| 卷号 | 12期号:1页码:36 |
| 关键词 | Human brucellosis Socioeconomics Climatic Extreme weather Copula model |
| DOI | 10.1186/s40249-023-01087-y |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Background Brucellosis is a common zoonotic infectious disease in China. This study aimed to investigate the incidence trends of brucellosis in China, construct an optimal prediction model, and analyze the driving role of climatic factors for human brucellosis.Methods Using brucellosis incidence, and the socioeconomic and climatic data for 2014-2020 in China, we per-formed spatiotemporal analyses and calculated correlations with brucellosis incidence in China, developed and com -pared a series of regression and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average X (SARIMAX) models for brucel-losis prediction based on socioeconomic and climatic data, and analyzed the relationship between extreme weather conditions and brucellosis incidence using copula models.Results In total, 327,456 brucellosis cases were reported in China in 2014-2020 (monthly average of 3898 cases). The incidence of brucellosis was distinctly seasonal, with a high incidence in spring and summer and an average annual peak in May. The incidence rate was highest in the northern regions' arid and continental climatic zones (1.88 and 0.47 per million people, respectively) and lowest in the tropics (0.003 per million people). The incidence of brucellosis showed opposite trends of decrease and increase in northern and southern China, respectively, with an overall severe epidemic in northern China. Most regression models using socioeconomic and climatic data cannot predict brucello-sis incidence. The SARIMAX model was suitable for brucellosis prediction. There were significant negative correlations between the proportion of extreme weather values for both high sunshine and high humidity and the incidence of brucellosis as follows: high sunshine, r = -0.59 and -0.69 in arid and temperate zones; high humidity, r = -0.62, -0.64, and -0.65 in arid, temperate, and tropical zones.Conclusions Significant seasonal and climatic zone differences were observed for brucellosis incidence in China. Sunlight, humidity, and wind speed significantly influenced brucellosis. The SARIMAX model performed better for brucellosis prediction than did the regression model. Notably, high sunshine and humidity values in extreme weather conditions negatively affect brucellosis. Brucellosis should be managed according to the One Health concept. |
| WOS关键词 | IMPACT |
| WOS研究方向 | Infectious Diseases ; Parasitology ; Tropical Medicine |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000970513000001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/200839]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Beihang Univ, Sch Biol Sci & Med Engn, 37 Xueyuan Rd, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, 155 Changbai Rd, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China 3.Ctr Dis Control & Prevent Chinese Peoples Liberat, 20 Dong Da Jie St, Beijing 100071, Peoples R China 4.Acad Mil Sci Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, Acad Mil Med Sci, 27 Taiping Rd, Beijing 100036, Peoples R China 5.Beijing Inst Microbiol & Epidemiol, State Key Lab Pathogen & Biosecur, 20 Dong Da St, Beijing 100071, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chen, Hui,Lin, Meng-Xuan,Wang, Li-Ping,et al. Driving role of climatic and socioenvironmental factors on human brucellosis in China: machine-learning-based predictive analyses[J]. INFECTIOUS DISEASES OF POVERTY,2023,12(1):36. |
| APA | Chen, Hui.,Lin, Meng-Xuan.,Wang, Li-Ping.,Huang, Yin-Xiang.,Feng, Yao.,...&Wang, Li-Gui.(2023).Driving role of climatic and socioenvironmental factors on human brucellosis in China: machine-learning-based predictive analyses.INFECTIOUS DISEASES OF POVERTY,12(1),36. |
| MLA | Chen, Hui,et al."Driving role of climatic and socioenvironmental factors on human brucellosis in China: machine-learning-based predictive analyses".INFECTIOUS DISEASES OF POVERTY 12.1(2023):36. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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