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A New Method for Predicting Non-Recurrent Geomagnetic Storms

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Wang, Cong1,2,3; Ye, Qian3,4; He, Fei5; Chen, Bo3,4; Zhang, Xiaoxin3,4
刊名SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS
出版日期2023-08-01
卷号21期号:8页码:12
关键词non-recurrent geomagnetic storms cosmic ray coronal mass ejection
DOI10.1029/2023SW003522
英文摘要Predicting non-recurrent geomagnetic storms caused by Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is important and necessary for space weather forecasting. Previous studies have shown that it is feasible to predict non-recurrent geomagnetic storms by reconstructing precursors from cosmic ray intensity (CRI) in the frequency domain. However, the difficulty lies in predicting the minor storms, the moderate storms, and the storms accompanying ground level enhancement (GLE). This study proposes a new method that includes the spectral whitening method and CEEMDAN-CWT for predicting non-recurrent geomagnetic storms. The method was applied to 229 CME-driven events, including 166 events with Kp = 5 and 63 events with Kp < 5, during the solar cycles 23 and 24. This study analyzed 166 geomagnetic storm events and found that 129 of them were accurately predicted, resulting in a recall rate of 77.7%. Additionally, the study found that as the Kp index increased, the amplitude of the precursor detected by this method also increased, while the time interval between the onset of CME and the maximum amplitude of the precursor decreased.
WOS关键词COSMIC-RAY ; SOLAR-ACTIVITY ; SPACE WEATHER ; EARTH
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[41931073] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41774152] ; National Key Ramp;D Program of China[2021YFA0718600]
WOS研究方向Astronomy & Astrophysics ; Geochemistry & Geophysics ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
出版者AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
WOS记录号WOS:001046639500001
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Ramp;D Program of China ; National Key Ramp;D Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Ramp;D Program of China ; National Key Ramp;D Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Ramp;D Program of China ; National Key Ramp;D Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Ramp;D Program of China ; National Key Ramp;D Program of China
源URL[http://ir.iggcas.ac.cn/handle/132A11/111382]  
专题地质与地球物理研究所_中国科学院地球与行星物理重点实验室
通讯作者Zhang, Xiaoxin
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Nanjing, Peoples R China
3.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Satellite Meteorol Ctr, Natl Ctr Space Weather, Key Lab Space Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Innovat Ctr FengYun Meteorol Satellite FYSIC, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geol & Geophys, Key Lab Earth & Planetary Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Wang, Cong,Ye, Qian,He, Fei,et al. A New Method for Predicting Non-Recurrent Geomagnetic Storms[J]. SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,2023,21(8):12.
APA Wang, Cong,Ye, Qian,He, Fei,Chen, Bo,&Zhang, Xiaoxin.(2023).A New Method for Predicting Non-Recurrent Geomagnetic Storms.SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,21(8),12.
MLA Wang, Cong,et al."A New Method for Predicting Non-Recurrent Geomagnetic Storms".SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS 21.8(2023):12.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地质与地球物理研究所

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