Storyline attribution of human influence on a record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Jun; Chen, Yang7; Tett, Simon F. B.; Stone, Daithi5; Nie, Ji4; Feng, Jinming3; Yan, Zhongwei2,3; Zhai, Panmao7; Ge, Quansheng2 |
| 刊名 | SCIENCE ADVANCES
 |
| 出版日期 | 2023-12-01 |
| 卷号 | 9期号:48页码:eadi2714 |
| DOI | 10.1126/sciadv.adi2714 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Attribution of compound events informs preparedness for emerging hazards with disproportionate impacts. However, the task remains challenging because space-time interactions among extremes and uncertain dynamic changes are not satisfactorily addressed in the well-established attribution framework. For attributing the 2020 record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event in China, we conduct a storyline attribution analysis by designing simulation experiments via a weather forecast model, quantifying component-based attributable changes, and comparing with historical flow analogs. We quantify that given the large-scale circulation, anthropogenic influence to date has exacerbated the extreme Mei-yu rainfall in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River during June-July 2020 by similar to 6.5% and warmed the co-occurring seasonal extreme heat in South China by similar to 1 degrees C. Our projections show a further intensification of the compound event by the end of this century, with moderate emissions making the rainfall totals similar to 14% larger and the season similar to 2.1 degrees C warmer in South China than the 2020 status. |
| WOS关键词 | MEI-YU ; WEATHER ; CHINA ; PRECIPITATION |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001122844300007 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/201577]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Temperate East Asia, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Peking Univ, Sch Phys, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, Wellington, Aotearoa, New Zealand 5.Tett, Simon F. B.] Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Scotland 6.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China 7.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Jun,Chen, Yang,Tett, Simon F. B.,et al. Storyline attribution of human influence on a record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event[J]. SCIENCE ADVANCES,2023,9(48):eadi2714. |
| APA | Wang, Jun.,Chen, Yang.,Tett, Simon F. B..,Stone, Daithi.,Nie, Ji.,...&Ge, Quansheng.(2023).Storyline attribution of human influence on a record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event.SCIENCE ADVANCES,9(48),eadi2714. |
| MLA | Wang, Jun,et al."Storyline attribution of human influence on a record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event".SCIENCE ADVANCES 9.48(2023):eadi2714. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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