中国科学院机构知识库网格
Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid
Could climate change exacerbate droughts in Bangladesh in the future?

文献类型:期刊论文

作者Rahman, Mahfuzur11,12,13; Tumon, Md Sakib Hasan11,13; Islam, Md Monirul11,13; Chen, Ningsheng9,10,14; Pham, Quoc Bao8; Ullah, Kashif7; Ahammed, Sumaiya Jarin11,13; Liza, Sharmina Naznin6; Aziz, Md Abdul5; Chakma, Salit4
刊名JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
出版日期2023-10-01
卷号625页码:18
ISSN号0022-1694
关键词Coupled model intercomparison project 6 Drought Genetic algorithm Multilayer perceptron Artificial neural network Bangladesh
DOI10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130096
英文摘要

Droughts are one of the most complex, common, and catastrophic natural disasters, causing severe damage to agriculture and the economy. However, drought susceptibility must be measured and predicted in a systematic way, especially in light of potential climate change scenarios. This study aimed to predict current and future drought susceptibility in Bangladesh using historical climate data (1991-2020) and coupled model intercomparison project 6 data for three seasons: pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon. We applied an advanced machine-learning algorithm of artificial neural network (ANN) with a genetic algorithm (GA) optimizer to predict drought-prone areas. Nine hydrological parameters-rainfall, temperature, humidity, cloud coverage, wind speed, sunshine, potential evapotranspiration, and solar radiation-were used to develop drought susceptibility maps. Receiver operating characteristic curves and statistical metrics were used to validate the models. The results of a multilayer perceptron ANN coupled with a GA-based optimizer showed that the relevant statistical measures for training and testing datasets were the root mean square error (RMSE = 0.127 and 0.160) and coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.967 and 0.949) for the pre-monsoon season, monsoon season (RMSE = 0.023 and 0.035; R2 = 0.998 and 0.997), and post-monsoon season (RMSE = 0.083 and 0.142; R2 = 0.986 and 0.959), respectively. Further, drought-prone areas in the baseline drought period of 2020 for pre-monsoon season represented 23.86%, 14.24%, 12.85%, 29.92%, and 19.13% of the total area, respectively; similarly, for monsoon corresponding values were 1.83%, 44.18%, 4.99%, 8.76%, and 40.24%; and for post-monsoon drought they were 24.43%, 20.94%, 16.04%, 37.79%, and 0.80% of the total landmass of Bangladesh. These results can help reduce future drought impacts and be of value in assisting policy responses in the country.

WOS关键词VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ; NAMAKKAL DISTRICT ; NEURAL-NETWORKS ; INTEGRATION ; INDEX ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; PREDICTION ; VEGETATION ; EVENTS
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[U20A20110] ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[2019QZKK0902] ; Transboundary land and water resource management and water disaster prevention in Koshi River[131C11KYSB20200033] ; National Research Foundation of Korea[NRF-2021R1A6A1A03045185]
WOS研究方向Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
语种英语
出版者ELSEVIER
WOS记录号WOS:001106735100001
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program ; Transboundary land and water resource management and water disaster prevention in Koshi River ; National Research Foundation of Korea
源URL[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/57773]  
专题成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室
中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
通讯作者Rahman, Mahfuzur; Chen, Ningsheng
作者单位1.Curtin Univ, Sch Earth & Planetary Sci, Bentley, WA 6102, Australia
2.Int Univ Business Agr & Technol IUBAT, Dept Comp Sci & Engn, Dhaka 1230, Bangladesh
3.Training & Technol Transfer, Sr Program Officer, Dhaka 1215, Bangladesh
4.Bangladesh Univ Profess, Dept Disaster Management & Resilience, Mirpur Cantonment, Dhaka 1216, Bangladesh
5.Govt Peoples Republ Bangladesh, Minist Planning, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh
6.Dhaka Univ Engn & Technol DUET, Dept Civil Engn, Gazipur 1707, Bangladesh
7.China Univ Geosci, Inst Geophys & Geomatics, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China
8.Univ Siles Katowice, Inst Earth Sci, Fac Nat Sci, Bedzinska St 60, PL-41200 Sosnowiec, Poland
9.Acad Plateau Sci & Sustainabil, Xining 810016, Peoples R China
10.Tribhuvan Univ, Chinese Acad Sci, Kathmandu Ctr Res & Educ, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Rahman, Mahfuzur,Tumon, Md Sakib Hasan,Islam, Md Monirul,et al. Could climate change exacerbate droughts in Bangladesh in the future?[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2023,625:18.
APA Rahman, Mahfuzur.,Tumon, Md Sakib Hasan.,Islam, Md Monirul.,Chen, Ningsheng.,Pham, Quoc Bao.,...&Dewan, Ashraf.(2023).Could climate change exacerbate droughts in Bangladesh in the future?.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,625,18.
MLA Rahman, Mahfuzur,et al."Could climate change exacerbate droughts in Bangladesh in the future?".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 625(2023):18.

入库方式: OAI收割

来源:成都山地灾害与环境研究所

浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。