Effects of changes in climatic means, variability, and agro-technologies on future wheat and maize yields at 10 sites across the globe
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Bracho-Mujica, Gennady1; Roetter, Reimund P.1,2; Haakana, Markus3; Palosuo, Taru3; Fronzek, Stefan4; Asseng, Senthold5; Yi, Chen6; Ewert, Frank7,8; Gaiser, Thomas7; Kassie, Belay9 |
| 刊名 | AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2024-03-01 |
| 卷号 | 346页码:19 |
| 关键词 | Adaptation Climate change impacts Crop modelling Food security Technology change Yield gap |
| ISSN号 | 0168-1923 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109887 |
| 通讯作者 | Roetter, Reimund P.() |
| 英文摘要 | To address the rising global food demand in a changing climate, yield gaps (YG), the difference between potential yields under irrigated (YP) or rainfed conditions (YWL) and actual farmers' yields (Ya), must be significantly narrowed whilst raising potential yields. Here, we examined the likely impacts of climate change (including changes in climatic variability) and improvements in agricultural technologies on crop yields and yield gaps. Eight rigorously tested crop simulation models were calibrated for wheat and maize and run at 10 different sites around the world. Simulations were performed to estimate YP, YWL and yields achievable under three locally defined technology packages: TP0 represents average farmer's practice, while TP1 and TP2 are increasingly advanced technologies. Simulations were run for the baseline (1981-2010) and twelve future climate scenarios for 2050, representing changes in the means of climate variables and in the variability of daily temperature and dry/wet spell durations. Our basic hypotheses were that (H1) mean climate changes combined with increased weather variability lead to more negative yield impacts than mean climate changes alone, and (H2) advanced technologies would serve as effective adaptations under future climatic conditions. We found that crop responses were dependent on site characteristics, climate scenarios and adopted technologies. Our findings did not support H1. As for H2, the improved technology packages increased wheat and maize yields at all sites, but yield gap reduction varied substantially among sites. Future studies should consider a broader range of climate scenarios and methods for analysing potential shifts in climate variability. Moreover, it is recommended to co -create and evaluate climate zone -specific climate -smart crop production technologies in interaction with a wide range of local stakeholders. |
| WOS关键词 | CENTRAL RIFT-VALLEY ; CROP PRODUCTION ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; WEATHER ; GROWTH ; ADAPTATION ; PROJECTIONS ; SCENARIOS ; EXTREMES |
| 资助项目 | South African Limpopo Landscapes network-SPACES2 project (SALLnet) - German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)[01LL1802A] ; Barley Responses and Adaptation to Changing Environments project (BRACE) - SUSCROP-ERA-NET Cofund on Sustainable Crop Production, FACCE-JPI[459539744] ; Academy of Finland[316215] ; Academy of Finland[342560] ; Academy of Finland[330915] ; Academy of Finland[341977] ; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) through the Delivering Sustainable Wheat strategic programme[BB/X011003/1] |
| WOS研究方向 | Agriculture ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001161267500001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | South African Limpopo Landscapes network-SPACES2 project (SALLnet) - German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) ; Barley Responses and Adaptation to Changing Environments project (BRACE) - SUSCROP-ERA-NET Cofund on Sustainable Crop Production, FACCE-JPI ; Academy of Finland ; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) through the Delivering Sustainable Wheat strategic programme |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/202740]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Roetter, Reimund P. |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Gottingen, TROPAGS Inst, Dept Crop Sci, Grisebachstr 6, D-37077 Gottingen, Germany 2.Univ Goettingen, Ctr Biodivers & Sustainable Land Use CBL, Buesgenweg 1, D-37077 Gottingen, Germany 3.Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, Latokartanonkaari 9, Helsinki 00790, Finland 4.Finnish Environm Inst Syke, Latokartanonkaari 11, Helsinki 00790, Finland 5.Tech Univ Munich TUM, Sch Life Sci Weihenstephan, Liesel Beckmann Str 2-1, D-85354 Freising Weihenstephan, Germany 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China 7.Univ Bonn, Inst Crop Sci & Resource Conservat INRES, Crop Sci Grp, Katzenburgweg 5, D-53115 Bonn, Germany 8.Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res ZALF, Muncheberg, Germany 9.Principal Financial Grp, Des Moines, IA USA 10.ARS, USDA, Adapt Cropping Syst Lab, BARC West Beltsville, 10300 Baltimore Ave Bldg 001, Beltsville, MD 20705 USA |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bracho-Mujica, Gennady,Roetter, Reimund P.,Haakana, Markus,et al. Effects of changes in climatic means, variability, and agro-technologies on future wheat and maize yields at 10 sites across the globe[J]. AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,2024,346:19. |
| APA | Bracho-Mujica, Gennady.,Roetter, Reimund P..,Haakana, Markus.,Palosuo, Taru.,Fronzek, Stefan.,...&Semenov, Mikhail A..(2024).Effects of changes in climatic means, variability, and agro-technologies on future wheat and maize yields at 10 sites across the globe.AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,346,19. |
| MLA | Bracho-Mujica, Gennady,et al."Effects of changes in climatic means, variability, and agro-technologies on future wheat and maize yields at 10 sites across the globe".AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 346(2024):19. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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