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Analysing monkeypox epidemic drivers: Policy simulation and multi-index modelling across 39 nations

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Lin, Mengxuan5; Xin, Yingrong4; Wang, Jiaojiao3; Nie, Pengyuan5; Yan, Qunjiao5; Wang, Ligui1,4; Wang, Lei2,5
刊名JOURNAL OF GLOBAL HEALTH
出版日期2024
卷号14页码:12
ISSN号2047-2978
DOI10.7189/jogh.14.04037
通讯作者Wang, Ligui(wangligui1983@126.com) ; Wang, Lei(wangleienjoy@163.com)
英文摘要Background This study aimed to analyse the drivers of the monkeypox (Mpox) epidemic and policy simulation to support health care policies against the Mpox epidemic. Methods We established a three -round selection mechanism for 164 factors using Lasso and negative binomial regression to investigate the correlation between significant drivers and the cumulative confirmed cases of Mpox. Policy simulation for each driver was evaluated, and the varying effects of implementation at different times were examined. Results HIV/AIDS prevalence and air transport passengers carried were significant determinants of the risk of the Mpox epidemic across various countries, with regression coefficients of 1.417 and 0.766, respectively. A decrease in HIV/AIDS prevalence by 10, 20, 30, and 40% corresponded to reductions in the number of Mpox cases by 6.28, 6.55, 6.87, and 7.26%, respectively. Similarly, 20, 40, 60, and 80% travel restrictions led to reductions in Mpox cases by 7.16, 15.63, 26.28%, and 41.46%, respectively. Controlling air transport passengers carried in the first month could postpone outbreak onset by 0.5-2.0 months. Conclusions Mpox prevention and control policies should primarily focus on travel restrictions during high disease -risk periods and flight suspensions from high -risk nations in combination with regular HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment strategies.
资助项目National Key Research and Development Program of China[2022YFC2602304] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72074209]
WOS研究方向Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
语种英语
出版者INT SOC GLOBAL HEALTH
WOS记录号WOS:001160839500001
资助机构National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
源URL[http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/55571]  
专题舆论大数据科学与技术应用联合实验室
通讯作者Wang, Ligui; Wang, Lei
作者单位1.Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, 20 Dongdajie St, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Acad Mil Sci Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, Acad Mil Med Sci, 27 Taiping Rd, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Multimodal Artificial Intelligence S, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Acad Mil Sci Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, Acad Mil Med Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Lin, Mengxuan,Xin, Yingrong,Wang, Jiaojiao,et al. Analysing monkeypox epidemic drivers: Policy simulation and multi-index modelling across 39 nations[J]. JOURNAL OF GLOBAL HEALTH,2024,14:12.
APA Lin, Mengxuan.,Xin, Yingrong.,Wang, Jiaojiao.,Nie, Pengyuan.,Yan, Qunjiao.,...&Wang, Lei.(2024).Analysing monkeypox epidemic drivers: Policy simulation and multi-index modelling across 39 nations.JOURNAL OF GLOBAL HEALTH,14,12.
MLA Lin, Mengxuan,et al."Analysing monkeypox epidemic drivers: Policy simulation and multi-index modelling across 39 nations".JOURNAL OF GLOBAL HEALTH 14(2024):12.

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来源：自动化研究所

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