Modeling the long-term transport and fate of oil spilled from the 2021 A Symphony tanker collision in the Yellow Sea, China: Reliability of the stochastic simulation
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Cao, Ruichen2,3,5; Rong, Zengrui2,3,5; Chen, Haibo1,5; Liu, Yi2,3,4; Mu, Lin6; Lv, Xianqing2,3,5 |
| 刊名 | OCEAN MODELLING
 |
| 出版日期 | 2023-12-01 |
| 卷号 | 186页码:14 |
| ISSN号 | 1463-5003 |
| 关键词 | A Symphony oil spill Pollution probability Stochastic simulation Uncertainty analysis |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ocemod.2023.102285 |
| 通讯作者 | Chen, Haibo(chenhb2015@qdio.ac.cn) ; Mu, Lin(mulin@szu.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Coupled with a 3D hydrodynamic model, a well-established 3D oil spill model is used to simulate the transport and fate of oil spilled from the A Symphony oil tanker collision in the Yellow Sea on April 27, 2021. The model is first validated by airborne mini-SAR and shipborne X-band radar observation in a 30-day simulation. Subsequently, the model prediction capabilities are investigated over a longer period when hydrodynamic data may not be available. In these cases, hydrodynamic data in earlier years are used for stochastic simulation, and the reliability of a multi-year stochastic simulation is tested. To evaluate the impact of hydrodynamics and meteorological conditions, indexes including oil sweeping area for surface oil, as well as oil centroid trajectory and oil fate for both the surface and subsurface oil, are statistically analyzed for a period up to 90 days after the spill. Over time, the deviation in the stochastic simulation relative to the deterministic simulation increased in the modeled oil transport, indicating an error accumulation. However, in the modeled oil fate, the deviation showed an interesting variation of first increasing and then gradually decreasing. This phenomenon can be attributed to three contributing factors: (1) limitations in empirical equations used in the model; (2) limited environmental impact of the spill; (3) differential role of small-scale ocean processes in short- and long-term simulations. The uncertainty in stochastic members may serve as an indicator of forecast accuracy. |
| WOS关键词 | IMPACT |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[U2006210] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[U1806214] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41806111] ; National Key Research and Development Plan[2019YFC1408405] ; High Performance Computing Center at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Oceanography |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001110856100001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/184028]  |
| 专题 | 海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Chen, Haibo; Mu, Lin |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 2.Ocean Univ China, Phys Oceanog Lab, Qingdao 266100, Peoples R China 3.Ocean Univ China, Frontier Sci Ctr Deep Ocean Multispheres & Earth S, Qingdao 266100, Peoples R China 4.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia 5.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Qingdao 266100, Peoples R China 6.Shenzhen Univ, Coll Life Sci & Oceanog, Shenzhen 518060, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cao, Ruichen,Rong, Zengrui,Chen, Haibo,et al. Modeling the long-term transport and fate of oil spilled from the 2021 A Symphony tanker collision in the Yellow Sea, China: Reliability of the stochastic simulation[J]. OCEAN MODELLING,2023,186:14. |
| APA | Cao, Ruichen,Rong, Zengrui,Chen, Haibo,Liu, Yi,Mu, Lin,&Lv, Xianqing.(2023).Modeling the long-term transport and fate of oil spilled from the 2021 A Symphony tanker collision in the Yellow Sea, China: Reliability of the stochastic simulation.OCEAN MODELLING,186,14. |
| MLA | Cao, Ruichen,et al."Modeling the long-term transport and fate of oil spilled from the 2021 A Symphony tanker collision in the Yellow Sea, China: Reliability of the stochastic simulation".OCEAN MODELLING 186(2023):14. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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