Improvement of an extended ensemble coupled data Assimilation-Forecast system and its application in El Nino diversity predictions
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Gao, Yanqiu3,6; Zhang, Jicai4; Liu, Kui5; Chen, Haibo2; Xu, Minjie1 |
| 刊名 | OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT
 |
| 出版日期 | 2024 |
| 卷号 | 247页码:15 |
| ISSN号 | 0964-5691 |
| 关键词 | Ensemble Kalman filter Data assimilation Forecast system |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2023.106917 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Jicai(jicai_zhang@163.com) ; Liu, Kui(liukui@sio.org.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | The El Nin similar to o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can cause climate anomalies on a global scale, and further affect human life and activities in coastal zones. Therefore, its forecast is of great significance for early disaster warning and coastal management. However, the frequent occurrence of central Pacific (CP) El Nin similar to o events increases the diversity and complexity of ENSO, severely reducing its prediction efficiency. In this study, an extended ensemble coupled data assimilation-forecast system was employed to investigate the prediction of different types of El Nin similar to o events, including eastern Pacific (EP) and CP events. The extended system was based on the fifthgeneration Lamont-Doherty Earth Observation (LDEO5) model, in which an advanced ensemble Kalman filter was used to construct a multisource data assimilation system, and a stochastic optimal method was used to measure the influence of atmospheric stochastic processes on model prediction errors. The extended system was used to predict two types of El Nin similar to o events that occurred between January 1950 and December 2018. The results showed that the extended system was generally able to predict EP events with a higher accuracy than CP events for all lead times. The extended system successfully predicted the mature phase of EP events up to 12 months in advance but could only predict the mature phase of CP events up to 6 months in advance. The extended system was also able to depict the evolution of both EP and CP events, although the sea surface temperature anomalies were underestimated. The extended system not only provides a useful platform for improving ENSO prediction accuracies in association with El Nin similar to o diversity but also provides an important tool for disaster early warning and coastal management. |
| WOS关键词 | WESTERLY WIND BURSTS ; ENSO PREDICTION ; NIO EVENTS ; TROPICAL PACIFIC ; PREDICTABILITY ; OCEAN ; MODEL ; FREQUENCY ; PROGRESS ; IMPACTS |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41876086] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42227901] ; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)[SML2021SP314] ; Scientific Research Fund of the Second Institute of Oceanography, MNR[JG 1809] ; Innovation Group Project of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)[311022006] |
| WOS研究方向 | Oceanography ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001165126000001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/184598]  |
| 专题 | 海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Jicai; Liu, Kui |
| 作者单位 | 1.Yantai Univ, Sch Ocean, Yantai, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China 3.Minist Nat Resources, Inst Oceanog 2, State Key Lab Satellite Ocean Environm Dynam, Hangzhou, Peoples R China 4.East China Normal Univ, State Key Lab Estuarine & Coastal Res, Shanghai, Peoples R China 5.Ningbo Inst Oceanog, Ningbo, Peoples R China 6.Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab Zhuhai, Zhuhai, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gao, Yanqiu,Zhang, Jicai,Liu, Kui,et al. Improvement of an extended ensemble coupled data Assimilation-Forecast system and its application in El Nino diversity predictions[J]. OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT,2024,247:15. |
| APA | Gao, Yanqiu,Zhang, Jicai,Liu, Kui,Chen, Haibo,&Xu, Minjie.(2024).Improvement of an extended ensemble coupled data Assimilation-Forecast system and its application in El Nino diversity predictions.OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT,247,15. |
| MLA | Gao, Yanqiu,et al."Improvement of an extended ensemble coupled data Assimilation-Forecast system and its application in El Nino diversity predictions".OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT 247(2024):15. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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