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Risk in solar energy: Spatio-temporal instability and extreme low-light events in China

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Guo, Jingxian1; Li, Runkui1,2,3; Cai, Panli1; Xiao, Zhen1; Fu, Haiyu1; Guo, Tongze1; Wang, Tianyi1; Zhang, Xiaoping1; Wang, Jiancheng2; Song, Xianfeng1,3
刊名APPLIED ENERGY
出版日期2024-04-01
卷号359页码:21
关键词Solar energy resources Spatio-temporal instability Extreme low-light events Risk Changing trend
ISSN号0306-2619
DOI10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.122749
通讯作者Li, Runkui(lirk@ucas.edu.cn) ; Song, Xianfeng(xfsong@ucas.edu.cn)
英文摘要The dramatically increasing photovoltaic power generation plays a crucial role in the transformation of energy structure and reducing carbon emission, but also facing high instability risks. Analyzing the spatial and temporal instability of solar energy resources in China, as well as the clustering characteristics of extreme low-light events, is of significant importance in identifying key areas for future development of China's photovoltaic industry and ensuring energy security. We propose a stability index and construct a long time series of solar radiation stability from 1981 to 2022 across China. We also extract the frequency and maximum duration of extreme low-light events and explore their spatio-temporal patterns in China. Our analysis reveals spatially unbalanced solar energy resources and varied temporal trends across China. Solar energy resources exhibit a decreasing trend in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, while experiencing an increasing trend in Xinjiang, the Northeast Plain, the Yangtze River Basin, and the southeast coastal areas. The turning point for such trends occurred from the late 1990s to the early 21st century. Notably, the instability of solar energy resources varies across regions, with the Yangtze River Basin and the southeast coastal areas experiencing greater instability compared to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Northwest China, Inner Mongolia, and other regions. Extreme low-light events occur frequently and their spatial distributions vary largely with seasons. The probability of extreme events in Sichuan Basin is completely opposite in spring versus winter. Summer stands out as the season with the highest stability of solar energy resources and the largest total solar radiation across China. The extreme low-light events in a large portion area of China is becoming more intense. China's photovoltaic allocation should pay more attention to climate risks in the future.
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; RADIATION ; STABILITY ; RAINFALL ; SYSTEMS ; DUST ; COST ; GIS
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[42341206] ; Weiqiao-UCAS Special Projects on Low-Carbon Technology[GYY-DTFZ-2022-028] ; Network Security and Informatization Special Application Demonstration Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences[CAS-WX2023SF-040301] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[E3E40503X2]
WOS研究方向Energy & Fuels ; Engineering
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001179659600001
出版者ELSEVIER SCI LTD
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Weiqiao-UCAS Special Projects on Low-Carbon Technology ; Network Security and Informatization Special Application Demonstration Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/203438]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Li, Runkui; Song, Xianfeng
作者单位1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
2.Binzhou Inst Technol, Binzhou 256606, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Guo, Jingxian,Li, Runkui,Cai, Panli,et al. Risk in solar energy: Spatio-temporal instability and extreme low-light events in China[J]. APPLIED ENERGY,2024,359:21.
APA Guo, Jingxian.,Li, Runkui.,Cai, Panli.,Xiao, Zhen.,Fu, Haiyu.,...&Song, Xianfeng.(2024).Risk in solar energy: Spatio-temporal instability and extreme low-light events in China.APPLIED ENERGY,359,21.
MLA Guo, Jingxian,et al."Risk in solar energy: Spatio-temporal instability and extreme low-light events in China".APPLIED ENERGY 359(2024):21.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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