Spatiotemporal trends of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China under climate variation
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Yuchen1,2; Zhang, Chutian1,2,3; Gao, Jin1,2,3,4,5,6,7; Chen, Ziqi1,2; Liu, Zhao8; Huang, Jianbin9,10; Chen, Yidan11; Li, Zhichao12; Chang, Nan13; Tao, Yuxin14 |
| 刊名 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
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| 出版日期 | 2024-01-23 |
| 卷号 | 121期号:4页码:9 |
| 关键词 | orthohantaviruses climate change forecast hosts spatiotemporal model |
| ISSN号 | 0027-8424 |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.2312556121 |
| 通讯作者 | Xu, Lei(xu_lei@tsinghua.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a zoonotic disease caused by the rodent- transmitted orthohantaviruses (HVs), with China possessing the most cases globally. The virus hosts in China are Apodemus agrarius and Rattus norvegicus, and the disease spread is strongly influenced by global climate dynamics. To assess and predict the spatiotemporal trends of HFRS from 2005 to 2098, we collected historical HFRS data in mainland China (2005-2020), historical and projected climate and population data (2005-2098), and spatial variables including biotic, environmental, topographical, and socioeconomic. Spatiotemporal predictions and mapping were conducted under 27 scenarios incorporating multiple integrated representative concentration pathway models and population scenarios. We identify the type of magistral HVs host species as the best spatial division, including four region categories. Seven extreme climate indices associated with temperature and precipitation have been pinpointed as key factors affecting the trends of HFRS. Our predictions indicate that annual HFRS cases will increase significantly in 62 of 356 cities in mainland China. Rattus regions are predicted to be the most active, surpassingApodemus and Mixed regions. Eighty cities are identified as at severe risk level for HFRS, each with over 50 reported cases annually, including 22 new cities primarily located in East China and Rattus regions after 2020, while 6 others develop new risk. Our results suggest that the risk of HFRS will remain high through the end of this century, with Rattus norvegicus being the most active host, and that extreme climate indices are significant risk factors. Our findings can inform evidence - based policymaking regarding future risk of HFRS. |
| WOS关键词 | HANTAVIRUS INFECTION ; RODENTS |
| 资助项目 | Major Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China[2021ZD0114103] ; Wellcome Trust[209734/Z/17/Z] |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001183208000005 |
| 出版者 | NATL ACAD SCIENCES |
| 资助机构 | Major Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China ; Wellcome Trust |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/203708]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Xu, Lei |
| 作者单位 | 1.Tsinghua Univ, Vanke Sch Publ Hlth, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China 2.Tsinghua Univ, Inst Hlth China, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China 3.Northwest A&F Univ, Coll Nat Resources & Environm, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China 4.Karolinska Inst, Dept Med, Resp Med Unit, S-17177 Stockholm, Sweden 5.Karolinska Inst, Ctr Mol Med, S-17177 Stockholm, Sweden 6.Univ Helsinki, Heart & Lung Ctr, Dept Pulm Med, Helsinki 00290, Finland 7.Helsinki Univ Hosp, Helsinki 00290, Finland 8.Beijing Inst Econ & Management, Sch Linkong Econ & Management, Beijing 100102, Peoples R China 9.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing Yanshan Earth Crit Zone Natl Res Stn, Beijing 101408, Peoples R China 10.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Yuchen,Zhang, Chutian,Gao, Jin,et al. Spatiotemporal trends of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China under climate variation[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2024,121(4):9. |
| APA | Wang, Yuchen.,Zhang, Chutian.,Gao, Jin.,Chen, Ziqi.,Liu, Zhao.,...&Xu, Lei.(2024).Spatiotemporal trends of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China under climate variation.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,121(4),9. |
| MLA | Wang, Yuchen,et al."Spatiotemporal trends of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China under climate variation".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 121.4(2024):9. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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