Spatial spillovers of violent conflict amplify the impacts of climate variability on malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa
文献类型：期刊论文
| Author | Yu, Qiwei; Qu, Ying; Zhang, Liqiang; Yao, Xin; Yang, Jing; Chen, Siyuan; Liu, Hui; Wang, Qihao; Wu, Mengfan; Tao, Junpei |
| Source | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
 |
| Issued Date | 2024-04-09 |
| Volume | 121Issue:15Pages:e2309087121 |
| Keyword | violent conflict malaria risk climate change sub-Saharan Africa |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.2309087121 |
| Rank | 2 |
| Subtype | Article |
| English Abstract | Africa carries a disproportionately high share of the global malaria burden, accounting for 94% of malaria cases and deaths worldwide in 2019. It is also a politically unstable region and the most vulnerable continent to climate change in recent decades. Knowledge about the modifying impacts of violent conflict on climate-malaria relationships remains limited. Here, we quantify the associations between violent conflict, climate variability, and malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa using health surveys from 128,326 individuals, historical climate data, and 17,429 recorded violent conflicts from 2006 to 2017. We observe that spatial spillovers of violent conflict (SSVCs) have spatially distant effects on malaria risk. Malaria risk induced by SSVCs within 50 to 100 km from the households gradually increases from 0.1% (not significant, P>0.05) to 6.5% (95% CI: 0 to 13.0%). SSVCs significantly promote malaria risk within the average 20.1 to 26.9 degrees C range. At the 12-mo mean temperature of 22.5 degrees C, conflict deaths have the largest impact on malaria risk, with an approximately 5.8% increase (95% CI: 1.0 to 11.0%). Additionally, a pronounced association between SSVCs and malaria risk exists in the regions with 9.2 wet days per month. The results reveal that SSVCs increase population exposure to harsh environments, amplifying the effect of warm temperature and persistent precipitation on malaria transmission. Violent conflict therefore poses a substantial barrier to mosquito control and malaria elimination efforts in sub-Saharan Africa. Our findings support effective targeting of treatment programs and vector control activities in conflict-affected regions with a high malaria risk. |
| WOS Keyword | AREAL UNIT PROBLEM ; PLASMODIUM-FALCIPARUM ; NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES ; POPULATION-MOVEMENTS ; TEMPERATURE ; ELIMINATION ; HOUSEHOLDS ; CHALLENGE ; HIGHLANDS ; WAR |
| WOS Research Area | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| Language | 英语 |
| WOS ID | WOS:001207680000003 |
| Publisher | NATL ACAD SCIENCES |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/204804]  |
| Collection | 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文 |
| Affiliation | 1.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.African Reg Ctr Space Sci & Technol Educ English I, Space Res & Dev Div, Ife 220282, Osun, Nigeria |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Yu, Qiwei,Qu, Ying,Zhang, Liqiang,et al. Spatial spillovers of violent conflict amplify the impacts of climate variability on malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2024,121(15):e2309087121. |
| APA | Yu, Qiwei.,Qu, Ying.,Zhang, Liqiang.,Yao, Xin.,Yang, Jing.,...&Liu, Suhong.(2024).Spatial spillovers of violent conflict amplify the impacts of climate variability on malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,121(15),e2309087121. |
| MLA | Yu, Qiwei,et al."Spatial spillovers of violent conflict amplify the impacts of climate variability on malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 121.15(2024):e2309087121. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.