中国科学院机构知识库网格
Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid
首页 机构 成果 学者
  
  1. CAS IR Grid
  2. 云南天文台
  3. 中国科学院云南天文台
  4. 抚仙湖太阳观测站
Extreme value theory applied to long-term sunspot areas

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhang, Rui1,2,3; Chen, Yan-Qing1,2; Zeng, Shu-Guang1,2; Zheng, Sheng1,2; Xiao, Yan-Shan1,2; Deng LH(邓林华)4,5; Zeng, Xiang-Yun1,2; Huang, Yao1,2
刊名JOURNAL OF ASTROPHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY
出版日期2024-05-03
卷号45期号:1
ISSN号0250-6335
关键词Sun: activity methods: data analysis sunspots
DOI10.1007/s12036-024-09999-3
产权排序第5完成单位
文献子类Article
英文摘要Solar activity, such as sunspots and flares, has a great impact on humans, living beings, and technologies in the whole world. Changes in sunspots will influence high-frequency and space-navigation radio communications. Based on the full-disk, southern and northern hemispheres sunspot areas (SAs) data in 1874-2023 from the Royal Observatory, Greenwich (RGO) USAF/NOAA, extreme value theory (EVT) is applied to predict the trend of the 25th and 26th solar cycles (SCs) in this work. Two methods with EVT, the block maxima (BM) approach and the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach, are employed to research solar extreme events. The former method focuses on each block's maximum sunspot areas value and is applied for the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The latter method aims to select the extreme values exceeding a threshold value and is used to obtain the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. It is the first time that the EVT is applied on the sunspot areas data from the Royal Observatory, Greenwich (RGO) USAF/NOAA. The analysis indicates that the estimated 8-year return levels for sunspot areas are 5701 and 6258 using the two methods, while the estimated 19-year return levels are all 7165. This suggests that the trends of the 25th and 26th solar cycles will be stronger than that of the 24th solar cycle.
学科主题天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系
URL标识查看原文
出版地C V RAMAN AVENUE, SADASHIVANAGAR, P B #8005, BANGALORE 560 080, INDIA
WOS关键词SOLAR-CYCLE ; MAGNETIC-FIELD ; PREDICTION ; NUMBER ; AMPLITUDE ; ROTATION ; MODELS ; SERIES
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[U2031202]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12203029]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[11873089]; Yunnan Key Laboratory of Solar Physics and Space Science[YNSPCC202208]; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007]; The 'Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program' Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012]
WOS研究方向Astronomy & Astrophysics
语种英语
出版者INDIAN ACAD SCIENCES
WOS记录号WOS:001216112900001
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China[U2031202, 12203029, 11873089] ; Yunnan Key Laboratory of Solar Physics and Space Science[YNSPCC202208] ; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007] ; The 'Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program' Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012]
版本出版稿
源URL[http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/27177]  
专题云南天文台_抚仙湖太阳观测站
作者单位1.Center of Astronomy and Space Sciences, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, 443002, People’s Republic of China;
2.College of Science, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, 443002, People’s Republic of China;
3.Yunnan Key Laboratory of the Solar Physics and Space Science, Kunming, 650216, People’s Republic of China;
4.School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Yunnan Minzu University, Kunming, 650504, People’s Republic of China;
5.Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, 650216, People’s Republic of China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhang, Rui,Chen, Yan-Qing,Zeng, Shu-Guang,et al. Extreme value theory applied to long-term sunspot areas[J]. JOURNAL OF ASTROPHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY,2024,45(1).
APA Zhang, Rui.,Chen, Yan-Qing.,Zeng, Shu-Guang.,Zheng, Sheng.,Xiao, Yan-Shan.,...&Huang, Yao.(2024).Extreme value theory applied to long-term sunspot areas.JOURNAL OF ASTROPHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY,45(1).
MLA Zhang, Rui,et al."Extreme value theory applied to long-term sunspot areas".JOURNAL OF ASTROPHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY 45.1(2024).

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：云南天文台

浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本

除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。