Future projections of compound temperature and precipitation extremes and corresponding population exposure over global land
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Yang, Yang2,3; Zhao, Na1,2,3 |
| 刊名 | GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2024-05-01 |
| 卷号 | 236页码:104427 |
| 关键词 | Compound extreme climate events Spatio-temporal variations Exposure Global land |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104427 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Extreme climate events are hotspots in global change. However, research on the changes in future compound events and population exposure is still limited. Leveraging from the data of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this paper aims to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of global compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in the future. We also predict the risk of population exposure and quantify the contribution of different factors to exposure. The results show that: (1) In the next 80 years, compound hot-dry event (CHDE) will increase at a rate of 0.02, 0.03, and 0.08 days per decade under the three scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. By comparison, compound hot-humidity event (CHHE) shows a downward trend under the three scenarios, with a downward rate of 0.01, 0.02, and 0.11 days per decade, respectively. (2) Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, CHDE and CHHE have two or more mutation points. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, CHDE shows a significant upward and CHHE shows a significant downward trend in the middle and late 21st century. These two indices exhibit periodic changes in all three scenarios (3) South Asia, West Asia, and Northeast Africa have higher CHDE values, while regions with higher CHHE values are located in North Asia and Greenland. (4) Climate change is a major factor affecting population exposure. For CHDE, climate, population, and their synergistic effects contribute about 75%, 20%, and 5% to the exposure, respectively. For CHHE, the contributions of these three factors are 85%, 10%, and 5% respectively. These findings provide scientific guidance for the rational formulation of population policies, the effective avoidance of climate disaster risks and the protection of human health. |
| WOS关键词 | MANN-KENDALL ; HEAT ; HOT ; CHINA ; TESTS ; RISK ; URBANIZATION ; RAINFALL ; DROUGHT ; EVENTS |
| WOS研究方向 | Physical Geography ; Geology |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001217740900001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/205202]  |
| 专题 | 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhao, Na |
| 作者单位 | 1.Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Resou, Nanjing 210023, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yang, Yang,Zhao, Na. Future projections of compound temperature and precipitation extremes and corresponding population exposure over global land[J]. GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,2024,236:104427. |
| APA | Yang, Yang,&Zhao, Na.(2024).Future projections of compound temperature and precipitation extremes and corresponding population exposure over global land.GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,236,104427. |
| MLA | Yang, Yang,et al."Future projections of compound temperature and precipitation extremes and corresponding population exposure over global land".GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 236(2024):104427. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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