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Long-term effects of climate factors on dengue fever over a 40-year period

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Xu, Chengdong3,4; Xu, Jingyi3,4; Wang, Li1,2
刊名BMC PUBLIC HEALTH
出版日期2024-05-30
卷号24期号:1页码:1451
关键词Dengue Long-term Climate
DOI10.1186/s12889-024-18869-0
产权排序1
文献子类Article
英文摘要Background Dengue fever stands as one of the most extensively disseminated mosquito-borne infectious diseases worldwide. While numerous studies have investigated its influencing factors, a gap remains in long-term analysis, impeding the identification of temporal patterns, periodicity in transmission, and the development of effective prevention and control strategies. Thus, we aim to analyze the periodicity of dengue fever incidence and explore the association between various climate factors and the disease over an extended time series.Methods By utilizing monthly dengue fever cases and climate data spanning four decades (1978-2018) in Guangdong province, China, we employed wavelet analysis to detect dengue fever periodicity and analyze the time-lag relationship with climate factors. Additionally, Geodetector q statistic was employed to quantify the explanatory power of each climate factor and assess interaction effects.Results Our findings revealed a prolonged transmission period of dengue fever over the 40-year period, transitioning from August to November in the 1970s to nearly year-round in the 2010s. Moreover, we observed lags of 1.5, 3.5, and 3 months between dengue fever and temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation, respectively. The explanatory power of precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and the Oceanic Ni & ntilde;o Index (ONI) on dengue fever was determined to be 18.19%, 12.04%, 11.37%, and 5.17%, respectively. Dengue fever exhibited susceptibility to various climate factors, with notable nonlinear enhancement arising from the interaction of any two variables. Notably, the interaction between precipitation and humidity yielded the most significant effect, accounting for an explanatory power of 75.32%.Conclusions Consequently, future prevention and control strategies for dengue fever should take into account these climate changes and formulate corresponding measures accordingly. In regions experiencing the onset of high temperatures, humidity, and precipitation, it is imperative to initiate mosquito prevention and control measures within a specific window period of 1.5 months.
WOS关键词NINO-SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; VECTORIAL CAPACITY ; TRANSMISSION ; CHINA ; EPIDEMICS ; RISK ; TEMPERATURE ; WEATHER ; DISEASE ; DRIVEN
WOS研究方向Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS记录号WOS:001236172000005
出版者BMC
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/205352]  
专题资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Xu, Chengdong
作者单位1.Henan Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Geospatial Technol Middle & Lower Yellow R, Kaifeng, Peoples R China
2.Henan Univ, Coll Geog & Environm Sci, Kaifeng, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Xu, Chengdong,Xu, Jingyi,Wang, Li. Long-term effects of climate factors on dengue fever over a 40-year period[J]. BMC PUBLIC HEALTH,2024,24(1):1451.
APA Xu, Chengdong,Xu, Jingyi,&Wang, Li.(2024).Long-term effects of climate factors on dengue fever over a 40-year period.BMC PUBLIC HEALTH,24(1),1451.
MLA Xu, Chengdong,et al."Long-term effects of climate factors on dengue fever over a 40-year period".BMC PUBLIC HEALTH 24.1(2024):1451.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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