A warming-induced glacier reduction causes lower streamflow in the upper Tarim River Basin
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, Lina3; Zhang, Liping3; Zhang, Qin1; Zou, Lei2; Wang, Gangsheng3; Li, Xiao3; Tang, Zhenyu3 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
 |
| 出版日期 | 2024-06-01 |
| 卷号 | 53页码:101802 |
| 关键词 | Climate change Streamflow Glaciers SPHY model Upper Tarim River Basin |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101802 |
| 产权排序 | 2 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Study area: Three headwater basins of the Tarim River Study focus: This study built upon existing knowledge by incorporating threshold melting temperatures into the Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) model and decomposing the streamflow changes into individual runoff components. Additional glacier retreat rate data were used to calibrate the improved SPHY, which provides better constrained estimates of glacier response to climate change. We employed bias-corrected simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to drive the improved SPHY under four future scenarios (SSP1 - 2.6, SSP2 - 4.5, SSP3 - 7.0, and SSP5 - 8.5). New hydrological insights for the region: Modeling results show accelerated glacier melt in the future, with glacier volume at the end of this century projected to be less than 20% of the current level under SSP5 - 8.5. Furthermore, future streamflow is expected to decrease, most notably in the Karakash River basin under the SSP1 - 2.6 scenario. The reduction in streamflow, mainly during the summer months, results from decreased glacier melt runoff, which cannot be offset by increased rainfall runoff. Additionally, the implementation of climate change mitigation measures could delay glacier loss, but the dominant component of runoff would still shift from current glacier melt to future rainfall. Plain language summary: Global warming accelerates the hydrological cycle, altering the temporal and spatial patterns of streamflow, especially in cold regions, such as the Tarim River Basin. Understanding future streamflow changes is important for the economic development and ecological protection of this region, which will help to manage the risk of water shortages and to plan engineering works to mitigate water shortage crises. We therefore used state -of -the -art climate simulation to project future streamflow changes over three basins of the Upper Tarim River. We found that under all future scenarios, runoff will decrease in these basins. This decrease is mainly due to glacier retreat and cannot be mitigated by anticipated increases in rainfall in the future. |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE ; WATER-RESOURCES ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; VEGETATION ; SNOW ; MELT ; PRECIPITATION ; VULNERABILITY ; AGRICULTURE |
| WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001239458200001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/205340]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Liping; Zou, Lei |
| 作者单位 | 1.Changjiang Water Resources Commiss, Changjiang River Sci Res Inst, Wuhan 430010, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources Engn & Management, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Lina,Zhang, Liping,Zhang, Qin,et al. A warming-induced glacier reduction causes lower streamflow in the upper Tarim River Basin[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES,2024,53:101802. |
| APA | Liu, Lina.,Zhang, Liping.,Zhang, Qin.,Zou, Lei.,Wang, Gangsheng.,...&Tang, Zhenyu.(2024).A warming-induced glacier reduction causes lower streamflow in the upper Tarim River Basin.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES,53,101802. |
| MLA | Liu, Lina,et al."A warming-induced glacier reduction causes lower streamflow in the upper Tarim River Basin".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES 53(2024):101802. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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