Characterizing future changes in compound flood risk by capturing the dependence between rainfall and river flow: An application to the Yangtze River Basin, China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Yu, Jiarui4,5; Zou, Lei5; Xia, Jun3,5; Dou, Ming2; Wang, Feiyu5; Chen, Xinchi1 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2024-05-01 |
| 卷号 | 635页码:131175 |
| 关键词 | Compound flood risk Copula function Flood damage function Expected annual damage CMIP6 Yangtze River Basin |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131175 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Compound floods induced by co-occurring multiple drivers may exacerbate the flood impacts and lead to larger flood damage. Exploring future changes in compound flood risk is imperative for flood management and disaster reduction. This study attempts to investigate future changes in compound flood risk across the Yangtze River Basin during 2030 similar to 2100. Future river flow was projected using an improved hydrological model and pairwise series of extremes of rainfall and river flow were extracted from both observed and projected series. Subsequently, stochastic pairs of rainfall and river flow characterizing compound floods were proportionally sampled from their bivariate joint distributions. The damage from each compound flood was obtained from the flood damage function constructed by Random Forests (RF). Further, the expected annual damage (EAD) was calculated to investigate future changes in compound flood risk. Results show that: (1) Future annual maximums of rainfall and river flow are expected to increase by 14.51 % similar to 66.13 % and 1.72 % similar to 55.73 % in the mainstream and northern tributaries, while future annual peak discharge in the southern tributaries (except for the Dongting Lake Basin) is expected to decrease by 4.18 % similar to 12.30 %. A similar spatial distribution of future changes is also found in the bivariate joint distribution of rainfall and river flow. (2) The high coefficient of determination (R-2) of 0.84 indicates the satisfactory simulation and projection capacity of the constructed flood damage function. The positive stepped relationship between flood damage and rainfall or river flow reflects the superposition of multiple flood damage processes. (3) The Han River Basin, the Jialing River Basin, and the two-lakes (the Dongting and Poyang Lakes) area face great threat from compound floods in both historical and future periods. Future compound flood risk is expected to increase by 13.43 % similar to 46.04 % in these regions except for the Poyang Lake Basin, while future risk is expected to increase by 2.03 % similar to 46.04 % in the whole basin. The findings help improve the understanding of future flood risk variations in the Yangtze River Basin and provide essential information for damage reduction. |
| WOS关键词 | HYDROLOGICAL MODEL ; SNOWMELT RUNOFF ; DONGTING LAKE ; VULNERABILITY ; FLEMOCS ; IMPACT ; DAMAGE ; SOIL |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001245788700001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/205372]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Zou, Lei |
| 作者单位 | 1.Guangdong Res Inst Water Resources & Hydropower, Guangzhou 510635, Peoples R China 2.Zhengzhou Univ, Sch Ecol & Environm, Zhengzhou 450001, Peoples R China 3.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources Engn & Management, Wuhan 430000, Peoples R China 4.Hohai Univ, Coll Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210024, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yu, Jiarui,Zou, Lei,Xia, Jun,et al. Characterizing future changes in compound flood risk by capturing the dependence between rainfall and river flow: An application to the Yangtze River Basin, China[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2024,635:131175. |
| APA | Yu, Jiarui,Zou, Lei,Xia, Jun,Dou, Ming,Wang, Feiyu,&Chen, Xinchi.(2024).Characterizing future changes in compound flood risk by capturing the dependence between rainfall and river flow: An application to the Yangtze River Basin, China.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,635,131175. |
| MLA | Yu, Jiarui,et al."Characterizing future changes in compound flood risk by capturing the dependence between rainfall and river flow: An application to the Yangtze River Basin, China".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 635(2024):131175. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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