Evaluation of rainfall threshold models for debris flow initiation in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China
文献类型:期刊论文
作者 | Yang, Hongjuan4![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
刊名 | JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
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出版日期 | 2024-06-01 |
卷号 | 21期号:6页码:1799-1813 |
关键词 | Rainfall threshold Logistic regression Maximum rainfall intensity Absolute energy Antecedent rainfall |
ISSN号 | 1672-6316 |
DOI | 10.1007/s11629-023-8507-6 |
英文摘要 | Systematically determining the discriminatory power of various rainfall properties and their combinations in identifying debris flow occurrence is crucial for early warning systems. In this study, we evaluated the discriminatory power of different univariate and multivariate rainfall threshold models in identifying triggering conditions of debris flow in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China. The univariate models used single rainfall properties as indicators, including total rainfall (Rtot), rainfall duration (D), mean intensity (Imean), absolute energy (Eabs), storm kinetic energy (Es), antecedent rainfall (Ra), and maximum rainfall intensity over various durations (Imax_dur). The evaluation reveals that the Imax_dur and Eabs models have the best performance, followed by the Es, Rtot, and Imean models, while the D and Ra models have poor performances. Specifically, the Imax_dur model has the highest performance metrics at a 40-min duration. We used logistic regression to combine at least two rainfall properties to establish multivariate threshold models. The results show that adding D or Ra to the models dominated by Eabs, Es, Rtot, or Imean generally improve their performances, specifically when D is combined with Imean or when Ra is combined with Eabs or Es. Including Ra in the Imax_dur model, it performs better than the univariate Imax_dur model. A power-law relationship between Imax_dur and Ra or between Eabs and Ra has better performance than the traditional Imean-D model, while the performance of the Es-Ra model is moderate. Our evaluation reemphasizes the important role of the maximum intensity over short durations in debris flow occurrence. It also highlights the importance of systematically investigating the role of Ra in establishing rainfall thresholds for triggering debris flow. Given the regional variations in rainfall patterns worldwide, it is necessary to evaluate the findings of this study across diverse watersheds. |
WOS关键词 | INTENSITY-DURATION THRESHOLDS ; TRIGGERING RAINFALL ; SHALLOW LANDSLIDES ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; PREDICTION ; RUNOFF ; IDENTIFICATION ; GENERATION ; CATCHMENT ; EVENT |
资助项目 | Dongchuan Debris Flow Observation and Research Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Key R&D Program of China[2023YFC3007205] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42271013] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42077440] ; Project of the Department of Science and Technology of Sichuan Province[2023ZHCG0012] |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:001249123300021 |
出版者 | SCIENCE PRESS |
资助机构 | Dongchuan Debris Flow Observation and Research Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Key R&D Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of the Department of Science and Technology of Sichuan Province |
源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/58146] ![]() |
专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 |
通讯作者 | Zhang, Shaojie |
作者单位 | 1.China Inst Geoenvironm Monitoring, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Chongqing Sch, Chongqing 400714, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Chongqing Inst Green & Intelligent Technol, Chongqing 400714, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, State Key Lab Mt Hazards & Engn Resilience, Chengdu 610299, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yang, Hongjuan,Zhang, Shaojie,Hu, Kaiheng,et al. Evaluation of rainfall threshold models for debris flow initiation in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China[J]. JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,2024,21(6):1799-1813. |
APA | Yang, Hongjuan,Zhang, Shaojie,Hu, Kaiheng,Wei, Fangqiang,&Liu, Yanhui.(2024).Evaluation of rainfall threshold models for debris flow initiation in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China.JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,21(6),1799-1813. |
MLA | Yang, Hongjuan,et al."Evaluation of rainfall threshold models for debris flow initiation in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China".JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE 21.6(2024):1799-1813. |
入库方式: OAI收割
来源:成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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