Integrating an abandoned farmland simulation model (AFSM) using system dynamics and CLUE-S for sustainable agriculture
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Song, Wei3,4; Yang, Dazhi1,3; Wang, Yanwei2,3 |
| 刊名 | AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2024-08-01 |
| 卷号 | 219页码:104063 |
| 关键词 | Abandoned farmland Scenario simulation Food security Land use Spatio-temporal information Mechanism explanation |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.agsy.2024.104063 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | CONTEXT: Addressing the challenges of achieving United Nations Sustainable Development Goal SDG2 is complex, especially considering the profound impacts of population growth, environmental degradation, and disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic and armed conflicts on the global food supply system. Unjustifiable farmland abandonment poses a critical obstacle to food security, demanding a comprehensive knowledge framework for sensible decision-making in abandoned farmland reclamation. However, current research lacks systematic solutions. OBJECTIVE: This research seeks to address the challenges of farmland abandonment through a comprehensive knowledge framework. Integrating remote sensing surveillance, mechanism analysis, and scenario projection, the primary objective is to develop the abandoned farmland simulation model (AFSM) by combining abandoned farmland identification, the system dynamics (SD), and CLUE-S. The AFSM facilitates explicit spatiotemporal abandonment simulation, contributing to a deeper understanding of the dynamic evolution and mechanisms involved in farmland abandonment. METHODS: The AFSM is formulated through a logical sequence of spatiotemporal data acquisition - quantity prognostication - spatial simulation. The process begins by tracking annual land use changes, identifying spatiotemporal changes in abandoned farmland. Subsequently, the research employs the SD model to establish an elucidative framework for abandonment mechanisms, facilitating the quantitative analysis of factors influencing farmers' decisions regarding farmland abandonment. Finally, the CLUE-S model is utilized to prognosticate the spatial abandonment trend. All modules of the model have passed the precision test and inspection. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The AFSM outcomes reveal that the abandonment rate in the city of Jingdezhen fluctuated between 5.03% and 13.21% from 2003 to 2020, averaging 8.37%. The model systematically quantifies the multiple socio-economic variables that impact abandonment decisions. Key parameter groups delineate distinct development scenarios and make predictions. By 2032, the abandonment rate under the scenario of farmland protection is projected to be 10.88%, markedly lower than the inertial development and economic priority scenarios by 15.24% and 13.43%, respectively. The concentration of abandoned farmland is primarily observed in elevated, steep-sloped areas, exhibiting a climbing mountain and slope trend. empowering them to make well-informed decisions concerning abandoned farmland reclamation. The explicit spatio-temporal simulation, complemented by a clarifying framework for abandonment mechanisms, enables the quantification of the influence of various factors on farmland abandonment decision-making and realizes the coupling of quantitative and spatial simulation under various scenarios. |
| WOS关键词 | LAND-USE CHANGE ; GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY ; MOUNTAINOUS AREAS ; CULTIVATED LAND ; DRIVING FORCES ; USE SCENARIOS ; IMPACT ; CHINA ; HOUSEHOLD ; CLASSIFICATION |
| WOS研究方向 | Agriculture |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001271765800001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/206043]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Song, Wei |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.Yangtze Univ, Sch Geosci, Wuhan 430100, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 4.Hebei Collaborat Innovat Ctr Urban Rural Integrat, Shijiazhuang 050061, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Song, Wei,Yang, Dazhi,Wang, Yanwei. Integrating an abandoned farmland simulation model (AFSM) using system dynamics and CLUE-S for sustainable agriculture[J]. AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS,2024,219:104063. |
| APA | Song, Wei,Yang, Dazhi,&Wang, Yanwei.(2024).Integrating an abandoned farmland simulation model (AFSM) using system dynamics and CLUE-S for sustainable agriculture.AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS,219,104063. |
| MLA | Song, Wei,et al."Integrating an abandoned farmland simulation model (AFSM) using system dynamics and CLUE-S for sustainable agriculture".AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS 219(2024):104063. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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