Global Distribution and Projected Variations of Compound Drought-Extreme Precipitation Events
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Deng, Siqi1,2; Zhao, Dongsheng2; Chen, Ziwei1,2; Liu, Lei3; Zhu, Yu1,2; Wang, Ke1,2; Gao, Xuan2; Wu, Hanqian4; Zheng, Du1,2 |
| 刊名 | EARTHS FUTURE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2024-07-01 |
| 卷号 | 12期号:7页码:e2024EF004809 |
| 关键词 | compound events drought extreme precipitation event global warming transition from drought to extreme precipitation event |
| DOI | 10.1029/2024EF004809 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | The compound drought-extreme precipitation event (CDEP) is one of the most impactful successive compound events that shift from drought to extreme precipitation in the same location within a short period. Due to its dual characteristics of drought and flood, CDEP tends to be more destructive than the impact of individual drought or flood. Yet few studies have analyzed the likelihood of CDEP at different time intervals and their potential variations under global warming. In this study, we assessed the coincidence rate between droughts and extreme precipitation events at 1-month (CDEP-1), 2-month (CDEP-2), and 3-month (CDEP-3) intervals, as well as their potential changes in a 1.5 and 2 degrees C warming world (under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios). Our results suggest that global droughts and extreme precipitation events have coincided more frequently at 1-month interval than at 2- and 3-month intervals during the period 1985-2014. The global average coincidence rates of CDEP-1, CDEP-2, and CDEP-3 are 24%, 10%, and 7%, respectively. Notably, the coincidence rate of CDEP-1 exceeded 40% in Eastern Asia, north-eastern North America, and India, indicating that more than 40% of droughts have been followed by extreme precipitation events in the next month after drought termination. Under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, climate warming will increase the coincidence rate of CDEP-1, CDEP-2, and CDEP-3, especially will lead to higher values in the coincidence rate of CDEP-1. This study contributes to a better understanding of the patterns of CDEP and helps to develop more targeted risk management strategies. The compound drought-extreme precipitation event (CDEP), a phenomenon in which droughts and extreme precipitation events occur consecutively, is highly destructive but has been understudied. We examined the coincidence rate of droughts and extreme precipitation events at different time intervals and their changes under global warming. Our findings show that CDEP is more likely to occur within 1 month (CDEP-1), with a global average coincidence rate of 24%. The coincidence rate of CDEP-1 exceeded 40% in Eastern Asia, north-eastern North America, and India. Climate warming will increase the likelihood of CDEP, particularly CDEP-1, with the highest increments projected in Central Africa and Southern Asia. This study enhances our understanding of CDEP patterns and supports the development of targeted risk management strategies. We evaluated the coincidence rate between drought and extreme precipitation at 2-(CDEP-1), 2-(CDEP-2), and 3-month (CDEP-3) intervals 1985-2014, global droughts and extreme precipitation events coincided more frequently at 1-month intervals than at other intervals Global warming will increase the coincidence rate of CDEP-1, CDEP-2, and CDEP-3, especially will lead to higher values for CDEP-1 |
| WOS关键词 | ABRUPT ALTERNATION ; LOWER REACHES ; RISK ; FLOODS ; MIDDLE ; CYCLE |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001270594900001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/206073]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhao, Dongsheng |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Zhengzhou Univ, Sch Geosci & Technol, Zhengzhou, Peoples R China 4.Jiangxi Vocat Coll Ind & Engn, Pingxiang, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Deng, Siqi,Zhao, Dongsheng,Chen, Ziwei,et al. Global Distribution and Projected Variations of Compound Drought-Extreme Precipitation Events[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2024,12(7):e2024EF004809. |
| APA | Deng, Siqi.,Zhao, Dongsheng.,Chen, Ziwei.,Liu, Lei.,Zhu, Yu.,...&Zheng, Du.(2024).Global Distribution and Projected Variations of Compound Drought-Extreme Precipitation Events.EARTHS FUTURE,12(7),e2024EF004809. |
| MLA | Deng, Siqi,et al."Global Distribution and Projected Variations of Compound Drought-Extreme Precipitation Events".EARTHS FUTURE 12.7(2024):e2024EF004809. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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