Will the 2022 compound heatwave-drought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Feng, Ai-Qing4; Chao, Qing-Chen4; Liu, Lu-Lu1; Gao, Ge4; Wang, Guo-Fu4; Zhang, Xue-Jun3; Wang, Qi-Guang2 |
| 刊名 | ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2024-06-01 |
| 卷号 | 15期号:3页码:547-556 |
| 关键词 | Compound extreme event Joint return period Drought Heatwave Climate change Yangtze River Basin |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.accre.2024.05.004 |
| 产权排序 | 2 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave-drought extreme events (CHDEs), driven by global warming, present formidable challenges to ecosystems, residential livelihoods, and economic conditions. However, uncertainty persists regarding the future trend of CHDEs and their insights into regional spatiotemporal heterogeneity. By integrating daily meteorological data from observations in 1961-2022 and global climate models (GCMs) based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the evolution patterns of CHDEs were compared and examined among three sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin, and the return periods of CHDE in 2050s and 2100s were projected. The findings indicate that the climate during the 2022 CHDE period was the warmest and driest recorded in 1961-2022, with precipitation less than 154.5 mm and a mean daily maximum temperature 3.4 degrees C higher than the average of 1981-2010, whereas the characteristics in the sub-catchments exhibited temporal and spatial variation. In July-August 2022, the most notable feature of CHDE was its extremeness since 1961, with return periods of similar to 200-year in upstream, 80-year in midstream, and 40-year in downstream, respectively. By 2050, the return periods witnessed 2022 CHDE would likely be reduced by one-third. Looking towards 2100, under the highest emission scenario of SSP585, it was projected to substantially increase the frequency of CHDEs, with return periods reduced to one-third in the upstream and downstream, as well as halved in the midstream. These findings provide valuable insights into the changing risks associated with forthcoming climate extremes, emphasizing the urgency of addressing these challenges in regional management and sustainable development. |
| WOS关键词 | CONCURRENT CLIMATE EXTREMES ; PRECIPITATION ; RISK |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001273679700001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/206120]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Lu-Lu |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.China Meteorol Adm, China Meteorol Adm Training Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 3.China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China 4.Natl Climate Ctr, China Meteorol Adm Key Lab Climate Predict Studies, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Feng, Ai-Qing,Chao, Qing-Chen,Liu, Lu-Lu,et al. Will the 2022 compound heatwave-drought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?[J]. ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,2024,15(3):547-556. |
| APA | Feng, Ai-Qing.,Chao, Qing-Chen.,Liu, Lu-Lu.,Gao, Ge.,Wang, Guo-Fu.,...&Wang, Qi-Guang.(2024).Will the 2022 compound heatwave-drought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?.ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,15(3),547-556. |
| MLA | Feng, Ai-Qing,et al."Will the 2022 compound heatwave-drought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?".ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH 15.3(2024):547-556. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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