Assessment of future multiple ecosystem services in Central Asia based on the earth system model
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Hao1,3; Hu, Yunfeng1,3; Zhang, Yunzhi3,4; Lu, Wei1,3; Shao, Wei1,3; Niu, Xiaoyu1,3; Feng, Zhiming1,2; Yang, Yanzhao1,2 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
 |
| 出版日期 | 2024-08-10 |
| 卷号 | 466页码:142907 |
| 关键词 | Ecosystem service Earth system model Sustainable development Future change Comprehensive trade -off Central asia |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.142907 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | The assessment of future multiple ecosystem services (ESs) is of great significance to regional development. However, future data simulation and climate change impacts still need further research. This paper constructs an assessment framework for future ESs based on the earth system model, which can comprehensively analyze and trade-off carbon storage (CS), water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), habitat suitability (HS), potential production of cereals (PPC), potential production of roundwood (PPR), and potential production of livestock (PPL). Furthermore, we carry out a case study in Central Asia. Based on IPSL-CM6A-LR model, we evaluated the levels of multiple ESs and their comprehensive tradeoffs in 2050 under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP460, and SSP585). The results show that (1) with the increase in carbon emissions (from SSP126 to SSP585), the terrestrial CS and WY in Central Asia will first increase and then decrease in 2050. Notably, SC and HS experience a significant decline under SSP585 (7.76% and 2.20%, respectively), indicating environmental risks associated with high-emission scenarios. (2) Among the five pathways, the middle path (SSP245) strikes a better balance between development and environment. It demonstrates the highest levels of SC, HS, PPR, and PPL. Additionally, CS and PPC witnessed an increase of more than 4%. (3) SSP370 achieves the highest comprehensive trade-off score (1.087), slightly surpassing that of SSP245 (1.086). It exhibits the highest CS and WY among the five pathways. However, its SC, HS, PPR, and PPL are comparatively lower than those of SSP245, being at the intermediate level. We propose directions for the development of Central Asia: A middle pathway should be taken, as well as necessary climate and sustainable policies should be formulated. |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS ; SOIL ; TECHNOLOGY ; EMISSIONS |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001258260800001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/206102]  |
| 专题 | 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Hu, Yunfeng |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Resource Use & Environm Remediat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 4.China Earthquake Networks Ctr, Beijing 100045, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Hao,Hu, Yunfeng,Zhang, Yunzhi,et al. Assessment of future multiple ecosystem services in Central Asia based on the earth system model[J]. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,2024,466:142907. |
| APA | Wang, Hao.,Hu, Yunfeng.,Zhang, Yunzhi.,Lu, Wei.,Shao, Wei.,...&Yang, Yanzhao.(2024).Assessment of future multiple ecosystem services in Central Asia based on the earth system model.JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,466,142907. |
| MLA | Wang, Hao,et al."Assessment of future multiple ecosystem services in Central Asia based on the earth system model".JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 466(2024):142907. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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