Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Li, Donghuan3,5; Zhou, Tianjun2,4,5; Qi, Youcun3,5; Zou, Liwei2; Li, Chao1; Zhang, Wenxia2; Chen, Xiaolong2 |
| 刊名 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2024-06-27 |
| 卷号 | 24期号:12页码:7347-7358 |
| DOI | 10.5194/acp-24-7347-2024 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Cold extremes have large impacts on human society. Understanding the physical processes dominating the changes in cold extremes is crucial for a reliable projection of future climate change. The observed cold extremes have decreased during the last several decades, and this trend will continue under future global warming. Here, we quantitatively identify the contributions of dynamic (changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation) and thermodynamic (rising temperatures resulting from global warming) effects to East Asian cold extremes in the past several decades and in a future warm climate by using two sets of large-ensemble simulations of climate models. We show that the dynamic component accounts for over 80 % of the cold-month (coldest 5 % boreal winter months) surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly over the past 5 decades. However, in a future warm climate, the thermodynamic change is the main contributor to the decreases in the intensity and occurrence probability of East Asian cold extremes, while the dynamic change is also contributive. The intensity of East Asian cold extremes will decrease by around 5 degrees C at the end of the 21st century, in which the thermodynamic (dynamic) change contributes approximately 75 % (25 %). The present-day (1986-2005) East Asian cold extremes will almost never occur after around 2035, and this will happen 10 years later due solely to thermodynamic change. The upward trend of a positive Arctic Oscillation-like sea level pressure pattern dominates the changes in the dynamic component. The finding provides a useful reference for policymakers in climate change adaptation activities. |
| WOS关键词 | WINTER MONSOON ; SEA-ICE ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; ARCTIC OSCILLATION ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; NORTH-AMERICA ; TEMPERATURE ; PRECIPITATION ; PATTERNS ; METHODOLOGY |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001255266900001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/206093]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhou, Tianjun |
| 作者单位 | 1.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Donghuan,Zhou, Tianjun,Qi, Youcun,et al. Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2024,24(12):7347-7358. |
| APA | Li, Donghuan.,Zhou, Tianjun.,Qi, Youcun.,Zou, Liwei.,Li, Chao.,...&Chen, Xiaolong.(2024).Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,24(12),7347-7358. |
| MLA | Li, Donghuan,et al."Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 24.12(2024):7347-7358. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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