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Assessing the role of socio-economic factors in shaping the temperature-mortality exposure-response relationship in China

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Shang, Jing1,5; Sun, Zhaobin2; Zhang, Xiya1,5; Liu, Haimeng3; Miao, Shiguang1,5; Sulaymon, Ishaq Dimeji4
刊名ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
出版日期2024-07-01
卷号19期号:7页码:12
关键词exposure-response relationship climate change impacts socio-economic levels health prediction
ISSN号1748-9326
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ad57d4
英文摘要Non-optimal temperatures significantly influence public health. However, the role of socio-economic factors in modulating health risks associated with non-optimal temperatures varies geographically and among different populations. Thus, the meteorological, air quality, health data, and socio-economic indicators were obtained from 23 districts in North and 48 districts in East China, respectively. Employing a two-stage meta-analysis, the exposure-response relationship was constructed for temperature against mortality from non-accidental causes, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and respiratory illnesses. Furthermore, a non-linear spline regression was applied to assess the impact of socio-economic indicators on the exposure-response relationship and predicted future risks under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The results revealed that the influence of socio-economic factors on the exposure-response curve showed heterogeneity in East China and North China. In North China, the shape of the exposure-response curve changed greatly under different socio-economic levels, while it remained similar in East China. In East China, the relative risk of heat and cold exposure was reduced in regions with high GDP, high levels of public finance, good medical services, and a low proportion of the elderly population. Specifically, the risk of non-accidental deaths due to heat shows a nearly linear negative correlation with per capita GDP in East China, with a decrease of the relative risk by 0.075 for every 10 thousand yuan increase in per capita GDP. Future projections indicate that population aging plays a decisive role in shaping the exposure-response curves. Although economic growth can reduce the risk of heat-related mortality, the combined effect of population aging and economic increase results in steeper exposure-response curves in both hot and cold temperature ranges in the future. In conclusion, although spatial variations in relative risk changes still exist, enhancing the adaptive capacity of populations can mitigate health risks associated with future climate change.
WOS关键词HEAT ; COLD ; PROJECTION ; CLIMATE
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[42205181] ; Youth innovation team of the China Meteorological Administration[CMA2024QN12]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001253508500001
出版者IOP Publishing Ltd
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth innovation team of the China Meteorological Administration
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/206499]  
专题区域可持续发展分析与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Sun, Zhaobin
作者单位1.China Meteorol Adm, Key Lab Urban Meteorol, Beijing 100089, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather CMA, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
4.Natl Ctr Meteorol, Sand & Dust Storm Warning Reg Ctr, Jeddah 21431, Saudi Arabia
5.CMA, Inst Urban Meteorol, Beijing 100089, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Shang, Jing,Sun, Zhaobin,Zhang, Xiya,et al. Assessing the role of socio-economic factors in shaping the temperature-mortality exposure-response relationship in China[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2024,19(7):12.
APA Shang, Jing,Sun, Zhaobin,Zhang, Xiya,Liu, Haimeng,Miao, Shiguang,&Sulaymon, Ishaq Dimeji.(2024).Assessing the role of socio-economic factors in shaping the temperature-mortality exposure-response relationship in China.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,19(7),12.
MLA Shang, Jing,et al."Assessing the role of socio-economic factors in shaping the temperature-mortality exposure-response relationship in China".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 19.7(2024):12.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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