Process-driven susceptibility assessment of glacial lake outburst debris flow in the Himalayas under climate change
文献类型:期刊论文
作者 | Zhou, Bin2,3; Zou, Qiang3![]() |
刊名 | ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
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出版日期 | 2024-06-01 |
卷号 | 15期号:3页码:500-514 |
关键词 | Glacial lake outburst debris flow Susceptibility assessment Climate change Himalayas |
ISSN号 | 1674-9278 |
DOI | 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.002 |
英文摘要 | Global warming is causing glaciers to retreat and glacial lakes to expand in the Himalayas, which amplifies the risk of glacial lake outburst debris flows (GLODFs) and poses a significant threat to downstream lives and infrastructures. However, the complex interplay between GLODF occurrences and associated indicators, coupled with the lack of a comprehensive susceptibility indicator system that considers the entire GLODF process, presents a substantial challenge in assessing GLODF susceptibility in the Himalayas. This study proposes a process-driven GLODF susceptibility assessment indicator system responding to climate change that considers the complete process of GLODF formation, incorporating relevant parameters about upstream, themselves, and downstream of glacial lakes. Furthermore, to mitigate subjective factors associated with traditional evaluation methods, we developed three novel hybrid machine-learning models by integrating classic machine-learning algorithms with the whale optimization algorithm (WOA) to delineate the distribution of GLODF susceptibility in the Himalayas. All the hybrid models effectively predicted the GLODFs occurrence, with the WOA-SVC model demonstrating the highest prediction accuracy. Approximately 34% of the catchments exhibit high and very high susceptibility levels, primarily concentrated along the north and south sides of the Himalayan ridge, particularly in the eastern and central Himalayas. Indicators capturing the physical formation process of hazards, such as topographic potential (highest relative importance value of 40%), can precisely identify GLODF. A total of 128 catchments pose potential transboundary threats, with 24 classified as having a very high susceptibility level and 25 as having a high susceptibility level. Notably, the border region between China and Nepal is a prominent hotspot for transboundary threats of GLODF. These findings can provide valuable clues for disaster prevention, mitigation, and cross-border coordination in the Himalayas. |
WOS关键词 | MORAINE-DAMMED LAKES ; HAZARD ; GIS ; INVENTORY ; MODEL ; LANDSLIDES ; EVOLUTION ; PROVINCE ; MACHINE ; REGION |
资助项目 | National Nature Science Foundation of China[42171085] ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP)[2019QZKK0902] ; Light of West China Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[xbzg-zdsys-202104] ; Project of Applications for Network Security and Informatization, Chinese Academy of Sciences[CAS-WX2021SF-010604] |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:001273293100001 |
出版者 | KEAI PUBLISHING LTD |
资助机构 | National Nature Science Foundation of China ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; Light of West China Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Project of Applications for Network Security and Informatization, Chinese Academy of Sciences |
源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/58225] ![]() |
专题 | 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 |
通讯作者 | Zou, Qiang |
作者单位 | 1.Southwest Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm & Resource, Mianyang 621010, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhou, Bin,Zou, Qiang,Jiang, Hu,et al. Process-driven susceptibility assessment of glacial lake outburst debris flow in the Himalayas under climate change[J]. ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,2024,15(3):500-514. |
APA | Zhou, Bin.,Zou, Qiang.,Jiang, Hu.,Yang, Tao.,Zhou, Wen-Tao.,...&Yao, Hong-Kun.(2024).Process-driven susceptibility assessment of glacial lake outburst debris flow in the Himalayas under climate change.ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,15(3),500-514. |
MLA | Zhou, Bin,et al."Process-driven susceptibility assessment of glacial lake outburst debris flow in the Himalayas under climate change".ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH 15.3(2024):500-514. |
入库方式: OAI收割
来源:成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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