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Attribution of the unprecedented summer 2022 compound marine and terrestrial heatwave in the Northwest Pacific

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Chen, Qiaojun1,4,6; Li, Delei3,4,5,6; Feng, Jianlong1; Qi, Jifeng4,5,6; Zhao, Liang1; Yin, Baoshu2,3,4,5,6
刊名ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
出版日期2024-07-01
卷号19期号:7页码:12
关键词compound events extreme event attribution marine heatwave terrestrial heatwave anthropogenic forcing
ISSN号1748-9326
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ad5ab0
通讯作者Li, Delei(deleili@qdio.ac.cn) ; Feng, Jianlong(fjl181988@tust.edu.cn)
英文摘要In boreal summer (July-August) 2022, an unprecedented marine heatwave (MHW) occurred in the northwest Pacific Ocean (NWP), while a record-breaking terrestrial heatwave (THW) hit the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). The temperature anomalies caused by this compound MHW-THW event exceeded climatology by 2.5 standard deviations (SDs), breaking the historical record for nearly 100 years, with severe impacts on the ecosystems and social economy. To investigate the underlying causes, we explored the potential roles of anthropogenic forcing, atmospheric circulation, and 'triple-dip' La Ni & ntilde;a on this compound event using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model simulations. Results indicate that the 2022-like compound MHW-THW event was extremely unlikely to happen without anthropogenic warming, and that such extreme heatwaves were governed by the climatic mean temperature rather than changes in temperature variability. Notably, the anticyclone circulation patterns and associated high-pressure systems (i.e. western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) and South Asian high (SAH)) increase the probability of a 2022-like MHW-THW event by 3.7 times. However, the La Ni & ntilde;a phase has no significant effect on the occurrence probability of such events. We further estimate that the 2022-like MHW-THW event will become 7.5 and 11.4 times more likely under the SSP3-7.0 scenario by the middle and end of the 21st century, respectively. This study demonstrates the contribution of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability to the occurrence of compound MHW-THW events and highlights the urgent need to build mitigation strategies for compound MHW-THW events.
WOS关键词ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; RAPID ATTRIBUTION ; HIGH-TEMPERATURE ; SOUTH CHINA ; CLIMATE ; PRECIPITATION ; EXTREMES ; WEATHER ; RISK ; VARIABILITY
资助项目National Key Research and Development Project of China[2022YFE0112800] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42176198] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42176203] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB42000000] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS[2022204] ; Taishan Scholars Program[tsqn202211252]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001262687800001
出版者IOP Publishing Ltd
源URL[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/186338]  
专题海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
海洋研究所_海洋生态与环境科学重点实验室
通讯作者Li, Delei; Feng, Jianlong
作者单位1.Tianjin Univ Sci & Technol, Key Lab Marine Resource Chem & Food Technol TUST, Tianjin, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Engn Lab Marine Ranching, Qingdao, Peoples R China
3.Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao, Peoples R China
5.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Shenyang, Peoples R China
6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Observat & Forecasting, Qingdao, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Chen, Qiaojun,Li, Delei,Feng, Jianlong,et al. Attribution of the unprecedented summer 2022 compound marine and terrestrial heatwave in the Northwest Pacific[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2024,19(7):12.
APA Chen, Qiaojun,Li, Delei,Feng, Jianlong,Qi, Jifeng,Zhao, Liang,&Yin, Baoshu.(2024).Attribution of the unprecedented summer 2022 compound marine and terrestrial heatwave in the Northwest Pacific.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,19(7),12.
MLA Chen, Qiaojun,et al."Attribution of the unprecedented summer 2022 compound marine and terrestrial heatwave in the Northwest Pacific".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 19.7(2024):12.

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来源：海洋研究所

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