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  4. 海洋环流与波动重点实验室
The Indian Ocean Dipole in a warming world

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Wang, Guojian12; Cai, Wenju6,7,8,9,13; Santoso, Agus4,5,12; Abram, Nerilie1,2,3; Ng, Benjamin12; Yang, Kai12,27; Geng, Tao9,13; Doi, Takeshi26; Du, Yan24,25; Izumo, Takeshi23
刊名NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
出版日期2024-08-01
卷号5期号:8页码:588-604
DOI10.1038/s43017-024-00573-7
通讯作者Wang, Guojian(Guojian.Wang@csiro.au) ; Cai, Wenju(Wenju.Cai@csiro.au)
英文摘要The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) strongly affects the climate of the Indo-Pacific. Observations suggest a shift towards stronger and earlier positive IOD (pIOD) events alongside an increased amplitude of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, but uncertainty remains, impeding assessments of ongoing changes. In this Review, we synthesize the available knowledge of projected changes in the IOD during the twenty-first century under anthropogenic warming. Compared to observations, models struggle to simulate the Bjerknes feedback, asymmetry in the strength of positive and negative IOD anomalies and El Ni & ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation or monsoonal forcings. Yet several models do capture important feedbacks reasonably well and offer useful tools with which to assess IOD evolution. A pIOD-like SST warming pattern (an enhanced west-minus-east SST gradient) alongside shifts in feedback process drive corresponding changes to the IOD. Over the course of the twenty-first century, robust changes include: enhanced IOD SST variability (as measured by the first principal component of spring SST variability, not the dipole mode index); an increase in strong rainfall pIOD events; an increase and decrease in the frequency of strong-pIOD and moderate-pIOD, respectively, as defined by SST; and an increase in the frequency of early-pIOD events. Palaeo evidence reveals similar increases in the magnitude and frequency of pIOD events underpinned by a similar pattern of mean state change (Last Glacial Maximum, post-1960), reinforcing IOD projections. Sustained international efforts are needed to improve IOD simulations and reduce projection uncertainties. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) exerts strong control on the Indo-Pacific climate. This Review outlines twenty-first-century changes in the IOD, noting robust increases in eastern pole sea surface temperature variability, more frequent strong and early positive IOD events, and less frequent moderate positive IOD events.
WOS关键词SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ; ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; EL-NINO ; RECENT INTENSIFICATION ; DECADAL VARIABILITY ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; POSSIBLE IMPACTS ; FUTURE CHANGES ; MODE EVENTS
资助项目Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB40030000] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences[133244KYSB20190031] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences[183311KYSB20200015] ; Australian government under the National Environmental Science Program ; Australian Research Council[CE170100023] ; Australian Research Council[SR200100008] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42105032] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42090042] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42149910] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42049910] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42288101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42088101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41976021] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41975092] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42022040] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China project[42206209] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China project[42276006] ; China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents[BX20220279] ; Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD) ; JSPS KAKENHI[JP22K18727]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001280694500001
出版者SPRINGERNATURE
源URL[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/186207]  
专题海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者Wang, Guojian; Cai, Wenju
作者单位1.Australian Natl Univ, ARC Australian Ctr Excellence Antarctic Sci, Canberra, ACT, Australia
2.Australian Natl Univ, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Canberra, ACT, Australia
3.Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Earth Sci, Canberra, ACT, Australia
4.Ocean Univ China, Int CLIVAR Project Off, Qingdao, Peoples R China
5.Univ New South Wales, Australian Res Council ARC, Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes & Climate Change, Sydney, NSW, Australia
6.Xiamen Univ, Coll Ocean & Earth Sci, Xiamen, Peoples R China
7.Xiamen Univ, State Key Lab Marine Environm Sci, Xiamen, Peoples R China
8.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, State Key Lab Loess & Quaternary Geol, Xian, Peoples R China
9.Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China
10.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Wang, Guojian,Cai, Wenju,Santoso, Agus,et al. The Indian Ocean Dipole in a warming world[J]. NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT,2024,5(8):588-604.
APA Wang, Guojian.,Cai, Wenju.,Santoso, Agus.,Abram, Nerilie.,Ng, Benjamin.,...&Li, Xichen.(2024).The Indian Ocean Dipole in a warming world.NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT,5(8),588-604.
MLA Wang, Guojian,et al."The Indian Ocean Dipole in a warming world".NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT 5.8(2024):588-604.

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来源：海洋研究所

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