Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Marginal Sea Heatwaves of the Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Cui, Zhanxian1,3; Li, Yuanlong1,2,3; Guo, Yaru1; Wang, Fan1,2,3
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| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
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| 出版日期 | 2024-07-01 |
| 卷号 | 129期号:7页码:19 |
| 关键词 | Madden-Julian Oscillation marine heatwaves intraseasonal temperature variability southeast tropical Indian Ocean |
| ISSN号 | 2169-9275 |
| DOI | 10.1029/2023JC020867 |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Yuanlong(liyuanlong@qdio.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Marginal seas of the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO), including the South Java coasts and the Timor and Arafura Seas, are hotspots of large-scale marine heatwaves (MHWs) in austral summer with notable impacts on local ecosystems. Yet, the prediction of these MHWs remains challenging. By analyzing 39 MHWs and 45 marine cold-spells (MCSs) observed in the summers of 1982-2021, this study reveals a robust modulation effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on these events. The results show that 56% of MHWs and 51% of MCSs overlapped with MJO events, and their duration is systematically longer than others. Moreover, MHWs in phases 3-4 and MCSs in phases 6-7 of the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index were nearly 2-3 times stronger in intensity than the others. The passage of MJOs drives prominent intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the SETIO through perturbing surface heat fluxes, which in turn modulates the occurrence of MHWs and MCSs. During RMM phases 1-2 (convective center over of the east of Africa or the central-western Indian Ocean), the SETIO is controlled by a dry condition, with increased surface insolation and suppressed latent heat release. These anomalous fluxes drive a persistent SST increase, facilitating the emergence of strong and prolonged MHWs in the subsequent RMM phases 3-4. Further analysis suggests an 18% probability for MHWs in the SETIO 12 +/- 10 days after Phase 1. Therefore, the MJO contributes to the predictability of MHWs/MCSs of the SETIO, with implications for predicting climate extremes and hazards. The South Java coasts and the Timor and Arafura Seas in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) suffer from frequent and strong marine heatwaves (MHWs) in austral summer. These events have significant impacts on the local environment. This research explores how the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) affects these MHWs and marine cold-spells (MCSs). We find that MHWs and MCSs occurring with MJOs tend to persist longer than others. MHWs are overall stronger in phases 3-4 of the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index than the others, while MCSs are enhanced in RMM phases 6-7. The MJO causes sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the SETIO through surface heat fluxes. In RMM phases 1-2, the SETIO experiences dry condition with increased solar radiation and reduced wind speed, enhancing the likelihood of strong MHWs in subsequent phases 3-4. MJO is potentially helpful in predicting MHWs and MCSs. For example, there is an 18% probability of the MHW in the SETIO when the MJO evolves to RMM Phase 3 from RMM Phase 1 within 12 +/- 10 days. This probability exceeds the 95% background occurrence probability (similar to 4%) by four folds. Generally, eastward propagating MJOs contribute to the predictability of MHWs/MCSs in the SETIO. Marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) are modulated by MJOs and significantly enhanced in real-time multivariate MJO phases 3-4 MJOs drive intraseasonal temperature variability in the SETIO by surface shortwave radiation and latent heat flux and thereby modulate MHWs The eastward-propagating MJOs effectively contribute to the predictability of MHWs and marine cold-spells in the SETIO |
| WOS关键词 | MARINE HEAT-WAVE ; INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY ; INDONESIAN THROUGHFLOW ; WESTERN-AUSTRALIA ; SUMMER ; MJO ; SST ; PREDICTABILITY ; PACIFIC ; INCREASE |
| 资助项目 | Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB42000000] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[42090044] ; Laoshan Laboratory[LSKJ202202601] ; Ocean Science Data Center, IOCAS |
| WOS研究方向 | Oceanography |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001262811100001 |
| 出版者 | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/186299]  |
| 专题 | 海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Yuanlong |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Observat & Forecasting, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China 2.Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cui, Zhanxian,Li, Yuanlong,Guo, Yaru,et al. Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Marginal Sea Heatwaves of the Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS,2024,129(7):19. |
| APA | Cui, Zhanxian,Li, Yuanlong,Guo, Yaru,&Wang, Fan.(2024).Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Marginal Sea Heatwaves of the Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS,129(7),19. |
| MLA | Cui, Zhanxian,et al."Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Marginal Sea Heatwaves of the Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS 129.7(2024):19. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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