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  4. 中科院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室
Projections of coastal flooding under different RCP scenarios over the 21st century: A case study of China's coastal zone

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Xu, He1,2,3,4,5; Hou, Xiyong1,3,4,5; Li, Dong1,3,4,5; Zheng, Xiangyang1,3,4,5; Fan, Chao1,2,3,4,5
刊名ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE
出版日期2022-12-05
卷号279页码:13
关键词Sea level rise (SLR) Coastal flooding inundation China?s coastal zone (CCZ) Temporal and spatial characters
ISSN号0272-7714
DOI10.1016/j.ecss.2022.108155
通讯作者Hou, Xiyong(xyhou@yic.ac.cn)
英文摘要Among sea level rise (SLR)-induced threats to coastal regions, flooding inundation is considered the most serious, especially in China's coastal zone (CCZ). Previous attempts to simulate the inundation area caused by SLR at the macro spatial scale usually employed the bathtub model based on a large number of historical tide station data. However, these efforts mainly focused on simplifying the calculation of the inundation process at a large scale, but failed to improve the accuracy mainly due to the failure to exclude isolated depressions. Here, based on regional sea level data of the Integrated Climate Data Center (ICDC), the University of Hamburg, a physical ocean model (Finite Volume Coast and Ocean Model, FVCOM) was employed to simulate the maximum possible regional SLR in offshore China from 2021 to 2100 under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, and the hydraulic connectivity model was applied based on multi-source data to improve the simulation accuracy of the inundation area. Through these improved methods, the maximum possible inundation characters of CCZ over the 21st century were observed as follows: (1) Under RCP2.6/4.5/8.5 scenarios, the macro spatial patterns of inundation areas are similar, with the inundation area mainly distributing in the coastal areas around the Bo Hai, the coastal areas from Jiangsu to the estuary of the Yangtze River, the Pearl River Delta, and the western coastal areas of Taiwan, and the inundation area gradually expands and spreads over time. (2) Under the three scenarios, the maximum possible inundation area shows a wavelike rising trend, and by 2100, the inundation area is expected to exceed 48.89 x 103 km2 (RCP 2.6) and reach a maximum of 53.50 x 103 km2 (RCP 8.5). (3) There are significant differences in the inundation depth and flood frequency under the three scenarios, with the inundation characters of the high-emission scenario being the most extreme. Overall, our work can provide meaningful information for proper coastal urban planning, disaster prevention, and mitigation measures selection in China. The methodology can also be used for predicting the inundation areas in other coastal countries facing the threat of SLR.
WOS关键词SEA-LEVEL RISE ; STORM-SURGE ; VULNERABILITY ; WETLAND
WOS研究方向Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Oceanography
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000890637600004
资助机构Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
源URL[http://ir.yic.ac.cn/handle/133337/37173]  
专题烟台海岸带研究所_中科院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室
烟台海岸带研究所_海岸带信息集成与综合管理实验室
通讯作者Hou, Xiyong
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Yantai Inst Coastal Zone Res, Yantai 264003, Shandong, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Yantai Inst Coastal Zone Res, CAS Key Lab Coastal Environm Proc & Ecol Remediat, Yantai 264003, Shandong, Peoples R China
4.Shandong Key Lab Coastal Environm Proc, Yantai 264003, Shandong, Peoples R China
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Ocean Mega Sci, Qingdao 266071, Shandong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Xu, He,Hou, Xiyong,Li, Dong,et al. Projections of coastal flooding under different RCP scenarios over the 21st century: A case study of China's coastal zone[J]. ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE,2022,279:13.
APA Xu, He,Hou, Xiyong,Li, Dong,Zheng, Xiangyang,&Fan, Chao.(2022).Projections of coastal flooding under different RCP scenarios over the 21st century: A case study of China's coastal zone.ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE,279,13.
MLA Xu, He,et al."Projections of coastal flooding under different RCP scenarios over the 21st century: A case study of China's coastal zone".ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE 279(2022):13.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：烟台海岸带研究所

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