Observational constraint on climate model projections of global compound hot-dry events and the socioeconomic risks under climate change
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Yao, Lei1,2; Leng, Guoyong2; Yu, Linfei2; Tu, Haiyang1,2; Qiu, Jiali2 |
| 刊名 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2024-11-01 |
| 卷号 | 19期号:11页码:114027 |
| 关键词 | emergent constraints climate change compound hot-dry events socioeconomic risks |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7f72 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 英文摘要 | The frequency of compound hot-dry events (fHD) is projected to increase significantly with future warming, yet associated uncertainties remain considerable and poorly constrained. In this study, we constrain future projections of fHD (2070-2099) using observations of recent trends in temperature (T) and precipitation (P) (1980-2014) during the warm-seasons. The physical mechanism is that the variance of fHD across climate models is dominated by their projected changes in P (Delta P), which can be constrained by recent trends in T and P. Compared to the raw projections, the observationally constrained fHD is reduced by 9.68%-18.74%, with uncertainty narrowed by 3.79%-10.66% under the high emission scenario. The highest decline of fHD is located in regions with low population and gross domestic product (GDP), and globally, population and GDP exposures to fHD are reduced by 6.02%-10.73% and 6.51%-12.03%, respectively. The observationally constrained fHD with lower uncertainty provides more reliable information for risk management under climate change. |
| WOS关键词 | EMERGENT CONSTRAINTS ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; SENSITIVITY ; DROUGHT |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001325572300001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/208203]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Leng, Guoyong |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yao, Lei,Leng, Guoyong,Yu, Linfei,et al. Observational constraint on climate model projections of global compound hot-dry events and the socioeconomic risks under climate change[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2024,19(11):114027. |
| APA | Yao, Lei,Leng, Guoyong,Yu, Linfei,Tu, Haiyang,&Qiu, Jiali.(2024).Observational constraint on climate model projections of global compound hot-dry events and the socioeconomic risks under climate change.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,19(11),114027. |
| MLA | Yao, Lei,et al."Observational constraint on climate model projections of global compound hot-dry events and the socioeconomic risks under climate change".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 19.11(2024):114027. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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