Probabilistic analysis of drought impact on wheat yield and climate change implications
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Bin; Li, Linchao; Feng, Puyu; Chen, Chao; Luo, Jing-Jia; Harrison, Matthew Tom; Liu, Ke; Liu, De Li; Yu, Qiang; Guo, Xiaowei
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| 刊名 | WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES
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| 出版日期 | 2024 |
| 卷号 | 45 |
| 英文摘要 | Drought is projected to intensify under warming climate and will continuously threaten global food security. Assessing the risk of yield loss due to drought is key to developing effective agronomic options for farmers and policymakers. However, little has been known about determining the likelihood of reduced crop yield under different drought conditions and defining thresholds that trigger yield loss at the regional scale in Australia. Here, we estimated the dependence of yield variation on drought conditions and identified drought thresholds for 12 Australia's key wheat producing regions with historical yield data by developing bivariate models based on copula functions. These identified drought thresholds were used to investigate drought statistics under climate change with an ensemble of 36 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We found that drought-induced yield loss was region-specific. The drought thresholds leading to the same magnitude of wheat yield reduction were smaller in regions of southern Queensland and larger in Western Australia mainly due to different climate and soil conditions. Drought will be more frequent and affect larger areas under future warming climates. Based on our results, we advocate for more effective crop management options, particularly in regions where wheat yield is vulnerable to drought in Australia. This will mitigate potential drought impacts on crop production and safeguard global food security. |
| 源URL | [http://210.75.249.4/handle/363003/61988]  |
| 专题 | 西北高原生物研究所_中国科学院西北高原生物研究所 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Bin,Li, Linchao,Feng, Puyu,et al. Probabilistic analysis of drought impact on wheat yield and climate change implications[J]. WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES,2024,45. |
| APA | Wang, Bin.,Li, Linchao.,Feng, Puyu.,Chen, Chao.,Luo, Jing-Jia.,...&Guo, Xiaowei.(2024).Probabilistic analysis of drought impact on wheat yield and climate change implications.WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES,45. |
| MLA | Wang, Bin,et al."Probabilistic analysis of drought impact on wheat yield and climate change implications".WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES 45(2024). |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：西北高原生物研究所
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