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Timing the first emergence and disappearance of global water scarcity

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Liu, Junguo9,10; Li, Delong7,8; Chen, He8; Wang, Hong8; Wada, Yoshihide6; Kummu, Matti5; Gosling, Simon Newland4; Yang, Hong3; Pokhrel, Yadu2; Ciais, Philippe1
刊名NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
出版日期2024-08-20
卷号15期号:1页码:11
DOI10.1038/s41467-024-51302-z
产权排序4
英文摘要Alleviating water scarcity is at the core of Sustainable Development Goal 6. Yet the timing of water scarcity in its onset and possible relief in different regions of the world due to climate change and changing human population dynamics remains poorly investigated. Here we assess the timing of the first emergence of water scarcity (FirstWS) and disappearance of water scarcity (EndWS), by using ensembles of simulations with six Global Hydrological Models under two representative concentration pathways (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP6.0) combined with two shared socioeconomic pathways (i.e., SSP2, SSP3) for 1901-2090. Historically (1901-2020), FirstWS occurred predominantly in Asia (e.g., China and India) and Africa (e.g., East Africa); the peak time of emerging water scarcity began around the 1980s. Under all the four future RCPs-SSPs scenarios (2021-2090), FirstWS will likely occur mainly in some regions of Africa, for which the newly added area is double that in Asia. On the other hand, EndWS will mostly occur in China after 2050, primarily due to the projected declining population. We, therefore, call for specific attention and effort to adapt to the looming water scarcity in Africa. This research explores the emergence and resolution of water scarcity. The results indicate that water scarcity is likely to become predominant in Africa by 2090. Conversely, China might experience alleviation from water scarcity post-2050, attributed to its declining population.
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RESOURCES ; TRENDS
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)[42361144001] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)[41625001] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[XDA20060402] ; Henan Provincial Key Laboratory of Hydrosphere and Watershed Water Security, the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[819202] ; European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union[359248] ; Research Council of Finland's Flagship Programme under project Digital Waters ; ANR CLAND Convergence Institute
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001295167000006
出版者NATURE PORTFOLIO
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Henan Provincial Key Laboratory of Hydrosphere and Watershed Water Security, the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union ; Research Council of Finland's Flagship Programme under project Digital Waters ; ANR CLAND Convergence Institute
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/209075]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Liu, Junguo
作者单位1.CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France
2.Michigan State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, E Lansing, MI USA
3.2W2W Consulting GmbH, Dubendorf, Switzerland
4.Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham, England
5.Aalto Univ, Water & Dev Res Grp, Espoo, Finland
6.King Abdullah Univ Sci & Technol, Biol & Environm Sci & Engn Div, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
7.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
8.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
9.North China Univ Water Resources & Elect Power, Henan Prov Key Lab Hydrosphere & Watershed Water S, Zhengzhou, Peoples R China
10.North China Univ Water Resources & Elect Power, Yellow River Res Inst, Zhengzhou, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Liu, Junguo,Li, Delong,Chen, He,et al. Timing the first emergence and disappearance of global water scarcity[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2024,15(1):11.
APA Liu, Junguo.,Li, Delong.,Chen, He.,Wang, Hong.,Wada, Yoshihide.,...&Ciais, Philippe.(2024).Timing the first emergence and disappearance of global water scarcity.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,15(1),11.
MLA Liu, Junguo,et al."Timing the first emergence and disappearance of global water scarcity".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 15.1(2024):11.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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