Multiple-model based prediction of weekly discharge of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna by assimilating antecedent hydrological regime
文献类型:期刊论文
作者 | Rahim, Md. Abdur3,4,5; Liu, Shuang5; Hu, Kaiheng4,5![]() |
刊名 | GEOCARTO INTERNATIONAL
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出版日期 | 2024 |
卷号 | 39期号:1页码:25 |
关键词 | Discharge prediction ERA5 rainfall antecedent discharge machine learning ensemble model Brahmaputra-Jamuna |
ISSN号 | 1010-6049 |
DOI | 10.1080/10106049.2024.2413551 |
英文摘要 | In hydrology, accurate predictions and monitoring of river discharge are critical for river engineering, flood mitigation, water resource management and agricultural purposes. The Brahmaputra-Jamuna in Bangladesh, one of the highest discharge rivers in South Asia, is fundamental to the region's socio-economic structure and a major driver of flooding. Hence, predicting discharge in this river is crucial for managing water resources, protecting infrastructures and minimizing flood risks. In this study, four machine learning models, namely, Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Gradient Boosting Regression Tree (GBRT), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and their ensemble model were employed for weekly river discharge (Qt) prediction at Bahadurabad Transit. Weekly observed discharge and ERA5 reanalysis rainfall data with lag times from 1976 to 2022 were used for model calibration and validation. Various graphical and statistical evaluation metrics were employed to assess the model's performance. The findings indicate Rt, Rt-1, Qt-1 is the most effective inputs in predicting discharge (r = 0.92). Individual and ensemble models have a very good performance (R2, NSE: 0.85 to 0.92), and the ensemble model outperforms RF by 4.55%, SVM by 8.24%, GBRT by 3.37% and XGB by 2.22%. For peak discharge simulation, the ensemble model shows the best performance (R2 = 0.94, NSE = 0.94, RMSE = 4013.11 m3/s and MAE = 2843.60 m3/s). The reliability analysis verified the ensemble's superiority. The models in this study were efficient, adaptable and applicable for river discharge prediction in the Brahmaputra-Jamuna and other river gauge stations. |
WOS关键词 | SUSPENDED SEDIMENT LOAD ; TIME-SERIES ; RIVER ; STREAMFLOW ; RESERVOIR ; FLOODS |
资助项目 | Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[2019QZKK0902] ; Key R&D Program of Tibet Autonomous Region[XZ202301ZY0039G] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) project[42305178] ; National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project 'Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility' (EarthLab) |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Remote Sensing ; Imaging Science & Photographic Technology |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:001329445600001 |
出版者 | TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD |
资助机构 | Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program ; Key R&D Program of Tibet Autonomous Region ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) project ; National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project 'Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility' (EarthLab) |
源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/58464] ![]() |
专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 |
通讯作者 | Hu, Kaiheng |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Dhaka, Dept Meteorol, Dhaka, Bangladesh 2.Bangladesh Agr Univ, Dept Soil Sci, Lab Environm & Sustainable Dev, Mymensingh, Bangladesh 3.Patuakhali Sci & Technol Univ, Dept Disaster Resilience & Engn, Dumki, Bangladesh 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, State Key Lab Mt Hazards & Engn Resilience, Chengdu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rahim, Md. Abdur,Liu, Shuang,Hu, Kaiheng,et al. Multiple-model based prediction of weekly discharge of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna by assimilating antecedent hydrological regime[J]. GEOCARTO INTERNATIONAL,2024,39(1):25. |
APA | Rahim, Md. Abdur,Liu, Shuang,Hu, Kaiheng,Li, Hao,Abedin, Md. Anwarul,&Akter, Fatima.(2024).Multiple-model based prediction of weekly discharge of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna by assimilating antecedent hydrological regime.GEOCARTO INTERNATIONAL,39(1),25. |
MLA | Rahim, Md. Abdur,et al."Multiple-model based prediction of weekly discharge of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna by assimilating antecedent hydrological regime".GEOCARTO INTERNATIONAL 39.1(2024):25. |
入库方式: OAI收割
来源:成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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