Landslide Deformation Analysis and Prediction with a VMD-SA-LSTM Combined Model
文献类型:期刊论文
作者 | Wen, Chengzhi1,2,3; Tian, Hongling1,2,3![]() |
刊名 | WATER
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出版日期 | 2024-10-01 |
卷号 | 16期号:20页码:19 |
关键词 | landslide displacement prediction deformation model variational mode decomposition self-attention long short-term memory |
ISSN号 | 2073-4441 |
DOI | 10.3390/w16202945 |
英文摘要 | The evolution of landslides is influenced by the complex interplay of internal geological factors and external triggering factors, resulting in nonlinear dynamic changes. Although deep learning methods have demonstrated advantages in predicting multivariate landslide displacement, their performance is often constrained by the challenges of extracting intricate features from extended time-series data. To address this challenge, we propose a novel displacement prediction model that integrates Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), Self-Attention (SA), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. The model first employs VMD to decompose cumulative landslide displacement into trend, periodic, and stochastic components, followed by an assessment of the correlation between these components and the triggering factors using grey relational analysis. Subsequently, the self-attention mechanism is incorporated into the LSTM model to enhance its ability to capture complex dependencies. Finally, each displacement component is fed into the SA-LSTM model for separate predictions, which are then reconstructed to obtain the cumulative displacement prediction. Using the Zhonghai Village tunnel entrance (ZVTE) landslide as a case study, we validated the model with displacement data from GPS point 105 and made predictions for GPS point 104 to evaluate the model's generalization capability. The results indicated that the RMSE and MAPE for SA-LSTM, LSTM, and TCN-LSTM at GPS point 105 were 0.3251 and 1.6785, 0.6248 and 2.9130, and 1.1777 and 5.5131, respectively. These findings demonstrate that SA-LSTM outperformed the other models in terms of complex feature extraction and accuracy. Furthermore, the RMSE and MAPE at GPS point 104 were 0.4232 and 1.0387, further corroborating the model's strong extrapolation capability and its effectiveness in landslide monitoring. |
WOS关键词 | SPATIAL VARIABILITY ; DISPLACEMENT ; FAILURE ; TIME |
资助项目 | Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program ; [2019QZKK0902] |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:001341368200001 |
出版者 | MDPI |
资助机构 | Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program |
源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/58496] ![]() |
专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 |
通讯作者 | Tian, Hongling |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 101408, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610299, Peoples R China 3.State Key Lab Mt Hazards & Engn Resilience, Chengdu 610299, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wen, Chengzhi,Tian, Hongling,Zeng, Xiaoyan,et al. Landslide Deformation Analysis and Prediction with a VMD-SA-LSTM Combined Model[J]. WATER,2024,16(20):19. |
APA | Wen, Chengzhi,Tian, Hongling,Zeng, Xiaoyan,Xia, Xin,Hu, Xiaobo,&Pang, Bo.(2024).Landslide Deformation Analysis and Prediction with a VMD-SA-LSTM Combined Model.WATER,16(20),19. |
MLA | Wen, Chengzhi,et al."Landslide Deformation Analysis and Prediction with a VMD-SA-LSTM Combined Model".WATER 16.20(2024):19. |
入库方式: OAI收割
来源:成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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